AIADMK has to win seats and control dissidents to continue in power

The AIADMK has to win seats and control dissidents to continue in power

The Election Commission of India’s (ECI’s) announcement that it will conduct by-polls in four more Assembly constituencies in Tamil Nadu (in addition to the 18 already announced) has shifted the way the by-poll scenario has been perceived so far.

On one hand, the ruling AIADMK needs to gather more forces to keep the government intact. On the other hand, the DMK hopes it will win in at least 21 of the 22 seats going to the polls this time.

The ECI on Tuesday announced by-polls will be held in four assembly constituencies — Sulur, Aravakurichi, Thiruparankundram and Ottapidaram — on May 19 and the results will come, along with the Lok Sabha poll results and those to the 18 seats where there will be election on April 18, on May 23.

The Sulur seat fell vacant after the death of AIADMK MLA R Kanagaraj on March 21 this year, bringing down the strength of the party in the Assembly to 113. At the Thiruparankundram constituency, the Madras High Court has invalidated AIADMK candidate A K Bose’s victory. At Ottappidaram, a case was filed by a candidate against the result in 2016, but it was withdrawn as the AIADMK MLA in the constituency was disqualified by the Speaker. In Aravakurichi, the sitting AIADMK MLA, Senthil Balaji, was disqualified and there was a case pending against his election, which was dismissed later.

What difference could it make to the scenario in Tamil Nadu? DMK leaders have alleged conspiracy by the ECI for not announcing the elections in three of the four seats (the fourth seat fell vacant in March 21 only) earlier, stating it is indirectly supporting the ruling party.

With this, the Edappadi K Palaniswami-led government may require at least 10 seats to stay in office as against the previous calculation of six-seven seats.

The Tamil Nadu Assembly, which has 234 seats, including that of the speaker, currently has 113 members of the AIADMK, 88 of the DMK, eight of the Congress, one of the Indian Union Muslim League and an independent, while 22 seats are vacant.

When these vacant positions are filled, the AIADMK may require another five seats to cross the half-way mark of 117.

However, what makes matters complicated is that three MLAs of the ruling party — Aranthangi MLA E Rathinasabapathy, Virudhachalam MLA V T Kalaiselvan and Kallakuruchi MLA A Prabhu — are supporting rebel leader T T V Dhinakaran openly.

Besides, three independent candidates who contested on the AIADMK symbol of Two Leaves are not with the party now, say experts. This would mean the AIADMK may have to gather more seats in this election, probably up to 10.

With 97 MLAs in its support in the Assembly, including eight of the Congress and one of the IUML, the DMK needs to win 21 seats to topple the government and come to power.  The DMK had petitioned that these elections should be held and that these should be conducted before the announcement of the results for the other constituencies.

“It (fresh announcement of by-polls in four more constituencies) will put the ruling party in a slightly more difficult situation. But, at the end of the day, the party needs to win seven-eight seats to fend off the threats they face,” said Sumanth C Raman, a political analyst in Tamil Nadu.

The AIADMK’s hope is they can perform well in areas where the PMK is strong, for instance, in constituencies like Pappireddypatti, Harur, Sholingur and Tiruporur, where the PMK can gather over 15 per cent of the vote. With this, together with the AIADMK votes, it is hoping to sail through. According to opinion polls, it is doing well in seven-eight seats. 

In the four constituencies for which the polls were announced later, Aravakurichi is the seat of Senthil Balaji, who left the AIADMK to join the DMK and he may work hard to justify his shift. Thiruparankun-dram is an AIADMK stronghold, but Dhinakaran would pull in a lot of votes there. The Puthiya Thamizhagam party is strong in Ottappidaram, and the party is an ally of the AIADMK now. The AIADMK is strong in Sulur, so at least in these two seats it will have a better chance, he added.

At Sulur and Aravakurichi, the Vellala Gounders are dominant. The fight in Aravakurichi will be between the AIADMK and DMK, said S Raveenthran Duraisamy, a political expert and commentator. The Dhinakaran factor will be decisive in Thiruparankundram, and in Ottappidaram, it will be a contest between the AIADMK, DMK and Dhinakaran’s AMMK.

“Many had predicted the Edappadi government would not sustain for more than three months, but he has completed two years now. After the by-elections, it would be either the Edappadi government continuing or yet another election,” Duraisamy says.