Andhra Pradesh: TDP's by-election win puts friends and foes on back foot

Some sections in BJP that were keen on a break-up in ties with CM Naidu will have second thoughts

The victory of the ruling Telugu Desam Party (TDP) candidate in the by-election held in the Nandyal Assembly segment on August 23 has demonstrated Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu’s rising grip on electoral politics in the state. The by-election was necessary because Bhuma Nagi Reddy, who had won on the YSR Congress ticket in 2014 but later joined the ruling party, died. (The issue of his disqualification owing to his defection has reached the Supreme Court.) 

The TDP fielded his brother’s son Bhuma Brahmananda Reddy while Shilpa Mohan Reddy, who contested against Nagi Reddy as the TDP candidate in 2014, fought this time on the YSR Congress ticket. 

This election has set a benchmark in terms of deployment of resources by the two sides, particularly by the ruling party, which was jittery seeing the large crowds YSR Congress President YS Jagan Mohan Reddy was able to draw at election rallies. But in the end, the TDP candidate won by a huge margin of 27,000 votes as against the approximately 3,500 margin by which the previous victory won.

The outcome has dampened the morale of the opposition party because Nandyal, from where PV Narasimha Rao won in 1991 after becoming prime minister in the same year, has gone to the TDP after 13 years, besides exposing major weaknesses in Jagan Mohan’s election strategy.

For both Chandrababu Naidu and Jagan Mohan, the stakes were high because its electoral outcome has the potential to pave the way for political realignments that can influence the balance of power ahead of the Lok Sabha elections in 2019. 

Chandrababu Naidu is aware of Jagan Mohan’s efforts at getting close to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), particularly to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, because the latter successfully kept the Congress out of the picture in this southern state. 

On the other hand, Venkaiah Naidu’s elevation as Vice-President, implying his dissociation from politics, poses a challenge to Chandrababu Naidu’s clout both with the Central government and the BJP, and his opponents sense an opportunity there.

Within the BJP, there are strong sections that see the alliance with Chandrababu Naidu as a hindrance to the party’s growth in the state. These sections enjoy the patronage of the RSS. Therefore, people inimical to the ‘Naidus’ within the BJP would try to use any electoral setback of the ruling TDP to pressure their leadership to end the party’s alliance with him. Such a possibility could weaken Chandrababu Naidu on the home turf. The BJP has no strong political compulsion to drag the alliance to the next assembly and general elections in 2019.

In that sense, the victory in Nandyal helped Chandrababu Naidu to ensure the status quo in BJP-TDP relations for the time being. This will also put the BJP leadership in a dilemma on whether to keep or snap ties with the TDP and open the window for new political alliances. Jagan Mohan is waiting in the wings. Chandrababu Naidu may have to cede ground to the BJP, which has remained a marginal force in the state, in seat sharing if both decide to continue the alliance in the next elections.

The YSR Congress says Chandrababu Naidu will not be able to replicate the Nandyal performance in the general elections because the kind of force he has employed in this case is normally done when several Lok Sabha constituencies go to the polls.

To fine-tune the strategy for the next elections, Jagan Mohan has roped in political strategist Prashant Kishor, who is expected to start work in January. He is planning to undertake a 3,000-km pad yatra, covering all the 13 districts of the state, starting on October 27. This time he is expected to agree on seat sharing with Left parties.

The Centre’s refusal to increase the number of Assembly segments in the state was a big negative for the TDP because it may find it difficult to accommodate all the ticket aspirants. Multiple claims for the party ticket in 40-50 assembly constituencies are likely to create rebels in the party. Also, Naidu has weaned away 20 MLAs from the YSR Congress (the YSR Congress has dared Chandrababu Naidu to go for by-elections in these 20 constituencies. Naidu has not responded). He has to find a place for all of them in the next assembly elections.

Despite these irritants, Chandrababu Naidu still has aces up his sleeve to check the electoral prospects of the opposition party. One such possible move would be to encourage actor-politician Pawan Kalyan to field his candidates in constituencies in which the YSR Congress will have an edge over the ruling party candidates. There are no signs of a revival of the Congress Party even after three years. The party candidate got slightly fewer than 1,400 votes, of the nearly 170,000 votes polled. Observers think that this will only hasten the party's further liquidation, with some of its senior leaders looking to join the YSR Congress.