 "Assembly elections: Which way will the tide turn?")
Here are some perplexing facts to look out for:
First, Chhattisgarh: Central Chhattisgarh has been the mainstay of the Congress. In 2008, the party won 30 of the 58 seats in central Chhattisgarh, including sweeping two districts, Dhamtari and Mahasamund, entirely. The BJP won 26; BSP two. Subsequently, the Congress has shown it has a committed voter base because it also won the urban body elections.
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There is massive anti-incumbency here. If the BJP doesn't improve its performance in this region, it should not expect to return to power. They need to add at least 10 seats to their kitty from this region. That seems unlikely.
A lot is being made of the larger turnout in Bastar and Sarguja. It was 74% this time; but it was 71% in 2008, so the region is known for high turnout. This was the region the BJP swept in 2008. It is the area dominated by the Royal family- Dilip Singh Judeo, etc where Judeo and his clan organised the 'ghar vapasi' reconversion of the tribals. A lot depends on the performance of competing parties in this region.
In Madhya Pradesh the situation is similarly confusing. Everyone says what a good chap the Chief Minister, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, is. But his ministers are utterly venal and even the most popular candidate, Kailash Vijayavargiya, is not expecting to win from Indore. He wanted to change his constituency but Chouhan couldn't let him do that. The turnout in different areas today (the voting is on even as we speak) will decide which way the tide will turn.
The Congress looks disorganised and divided. There is the Kamal Nath faction, the Digvijay Singh faction, the Scindia faction and the Suresh Pachouri faction. But then, in Madhya Pradesh, the Congress has always been divided: in fact there is a kind of equilibrium in the 'gutbaazi' (factionalism) that is self-adjusting. If the Congress can't even take advantage this time of the anger against Chouhan's ministers, it is hard to see how the party can ever recover.
Rajasthan looks similarly undecided. All over the state, the Congress and the BJP are evenly matched. The key lies in Mewar, which the Congress swept last time. This is the area of tribals -Udaipur, Dungarpur, etc – where the leader of the Meenas, the unpredictable Kirori Lal Meena has created and is fighting with his own new party.
The notable thing about Mewar is that it is very close to neighbouring Gujrat. Narendra Modi had campaigned here extensively now as well as in 2008. Then the party had lost. This time, Modi's rallies have got huge crowds. Modi had in his Udaipur rally termed tribals as a hardworking, loyal and honest workforce in Gujarat, saying, "One out of every five person of our tribal belt earn his/her livelihood in Gujarat........Gujarati families who employs our tribal brothers and trust them so much that they go on vacation leaving keys in their hands."
All this is very well but we also have to consider the impact of all the popular schmes launched by the Congress-led government of Ashok Gehlot: free medicines, the pension scheme, etc. Do people consider these schemes an entitlement? Or do they believe Vasundhara Raje when she says their roll out has been as inefficient as the Congress government?
And what can one say about Delhi. The Aam Admi Party's popularity and sincerity is undeniable. But Delhi's voting population doesn't just live in government quarters. It also lives in villages and is swayed by caste. The BJP has a committed cadre that has stood by it. Yes, the perception that Vjay Goel was replaced abruptly midway through the campaign did unsettle and irritate BJP voters. But the party has done intensive damage control after that: and what is at the top of the mind is the corruption and croneyism of the Congress government that is causing a wave of revulsion.
The BJP freely admits that it is not at its strongest now. But also says it is putting remedial measures in place. The Sangh has got into action and is working hard to recover ground.
This set of assembly elections, notwithstanding unambiguous opinion polls that give at least three out of five to the BJP, is the hardest to predict. The best are filled with uncertainty and doubt. There is no shame in accepting this.