Assembly Polls | What is it? Modi, Rahul, anti-incumbency, development ...

The Congress is facing widespread anger at corruption, high inflation after two successive terms at the head of a national coalition

If there is one inference to be drawn from the outcomes of Assembly elections in four states, it  is that the people have voted largely against the Congress party. This is not to deny that sliding economic growth rate, corruption, misgoverance and leadership issues of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government had  all contributed to the Congress’s debacle particularly in Delhi and Rajasthan. 

 

Certainly, the latest results show that the overall mood in the country is broadly anti-Congress. It's still unclear how far Bhartaiya Janata Party’s (BJP) prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi's campaigning had contributed to the party's  strong showing. The results are likely to add to the momentum Modi has built in recent months. However, the extent to which Modi will bring in the extra votes for the saffron party will be tested in 2014. The Hindutva mascot’s litmus test will be to convert a substantial part of anti-incumbency into a positive vote for him. 

 

For those looking for trends that might determine the outcome of the 16th Lok Sabha polls due in April-May 2014, the results of the Assembly polls will be encouraging at present. The BJP has emerged a comfortable winner in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan and it retained Chhattisgarh, too. What the elections underlined was that while 'anti-incumbency' is a factor in Rajasthan and Delhi, it need not be only decisive factor: the BJP demonstrated this in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh as well.  

 

In Delhi, space has been given to a nascent party – Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). The BJP top brass belatedly realised  its mistake and chose Harsh Vardhan as its chief ministerial candidate. However, by this time the AAP had capitalised on the BJP’s shortcomings and seized a huge chunk of the anti-Congress space. It seems that the BJP will fall short of a majority, which would give the Congress enough ammunition to attack the arch rival’s hype on the Modi factor as Delhi is urbanised, and the BJP's PM-in waiting has been targeting the youth for the past few years. AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal has emerged as a king-maker in the 70-member Delhi Assembly, where a party requires 36 members to touch the half-way mark, the latest figures show Kejriwal’s debutant outfit has bagged 27 seats till 5.20 pm.

Delhi’s assembly polls 2013 will certainly well go down as a landmark in the history of India’s politics. So will AAP be able to carry forward this momentum? For the moment, no one has a clear cut answer. By and large, it has shaken Delhi’s electoral scene absolutely.

 

The Assembly polls were billed as 'semi-final elections' as they were meant to test the political waters on three possible counts. Firstly, the four states in the Hindi belt – Delhi, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan – have given a clear indicator of where the two national parties stand in current political scene. Secondly, it was believed to a test of the Narendra Modi versus Rahul Gandhi battle. Thirdly, it would give the national parties to take a call on which national issues will be relevant to allure voters in 2014. The suggestions, made in the media, that the assembly polls were somehow a referendum on Modi has turned out to be a pure hype.

 

The real message voters have sent out is, in balance, a reassuring one: elections are not single-issue affairs, no matter the publicity of those who claim to be riding this or that ‘emotional’ wave. 

 

Also, questions on Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi’s leadership persist in the national background as well. The Congress leader’s biggest tests continue to be the voters of Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Bihar and Maharashtra, from where the party would need a large number of parliamentary seats next year.