BJP-Sena tie-up on the brink

Weeks of talks over seat sharing for Maharashtra assembly polls fail to bear fruit

With neither the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) nor the Shiv Sena willing to yield ground on the number of Assembly seats they want to contest, the alliance between them seems to be on the brink. However, the central leadership of the BJP is trying to salvage the 25-year alliance, fearing repercussions in the Rajya Sabha, where the ruling party does not have a majority. The Sena has three members in the Upper House.

The BJP had already rejected Sena’s last seat- sharing formula of 151:119 for the elections to the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly. The BJP demanded 130 seats. But the Sena is in no mood to relent. While state-level leaders of both the parties have given up on the alliance, the Centre is still counselling patience and wisdom.

Since 1989, no party has contested all the 288 seats in the state alone. Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) was part of the Congress before it was formed in 1999. There are regions where even national parties such as the BJP and the Congress have little or no presence.

But BJP’s state-level leaders, confident that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s magic will help them secure a higher number (of 24 Lok Sabha seats they contested, they won 23, losing only one to former Chief Minister Ashok Chavan) are seeing visions of having a BJP chief minister in Maharashtra’s history.

This is the reason, state BJP leaders say, the alliance is over and that the Central Parliamentary Board has discussed the names of party nominees for all the 288 seats.

State BJP chief Devendra Fadnavis said the Sena was not in a state of mind to hold negotiations. He reiterated the BJP was unable to accept the Sena’s formula.

Curiously, the Sena sought the intervention of Union minister of external affairs Sushma Swaraj to convince the BJP’s central and state leadership to accept 119 seats.

Sena supremo late Bal Thackeray and his son Uddhav had made a pitch for Swaraj’s nomination as the prime ministerial nominee of the National Democratic Alliance but later extended their support to Modi.

In Delhi, party sources neither confirmed nor denied that BJP President Amit Shah spoke to Sena chief on Monday. However, they did complain of Thackeray’s “arrogance”. Sources said Thackeray phoned two senior leaders of BJP before Sunday’s central election committee meeting. They say Thackeray was being highhanded in talking to senior BJP leaders and ignoring state leaders.

Maharashtra polls are on October 15. The last date for filing of nominations is September 27. BJP sources claimed the party had already discussed candidates for 215-seats, and might decide to contest nearly 250 seats if its alliance with Sena comes unstuck.

But the BJP’s central leadership is wary that its opponents could accuse it in the electoral battlefield of being a betrayer of its allies, given its recent break up with Kuldeep Bishnoi-led Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) and also with Janata Dal (United) in 2013.

However, it is sure of painting Thackeray as “arrogant”, given how he has treated his cousin Raj or senior leaders like Manohar Joshi, Narayan Rane and Suresh Prabhu and was now trying to snap ties with a long time ally.

BJP sources said the party had climbed down from its insistence that both Sena and BJP contest 135 seats each, giving 18 to allies like Republican Party of India (Athavale) and Swabhimani Shetkari Sangathana.

They said party’s Maharashtra unit chief Devendra Fadnavis had proposed that BJP contest 130 seats, Sena 140 and 18 be allocated to other allies.

BJP leadership says the party’s strike rate was better in the 2009 assembly elections when it contested only 119 seats compared to 169 of its ally.

The BJP wants Sena to renegotiate the electoral arrangement on 59-seats that the alliance hasn’t won in the last 15-years. Of these, Sena has never won 40 while BJP’s share is 19.

A leader said all Sena had to do was part with 11-seats from its 40. BJP believes the reason its alliance with Sena couldn’t form a government in the last 15-years is precisely these 59-seats.

“BJP is known as an urban party across India but in Maharashtra it is the Sena which contests urban seats in Mumbai, Pune, Nashik, etc. We are confident of doing well in urban area as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s message of good governance has gone to all,” a senior leader said.

The leader also said the party was unlikely to hold any more of its Central Election Committee meetings as its final list is nearly ready.

“We are confident of being the single largest party,” the leader said. The BJP has decided on its slogan in Maharashtra that will liken the good governance of Shivaji's rule with that of Modi's.