 "BJP wins Haryana, emerges largest party in Maharashtra")
With parties such as the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), that were former enemies, virtually falling over themselves with offers to support the BJP, it seemed that despite overt political instability a firm government might be in place in the next 48 hours.
In Haryana the BJP's performance was stellar as it was poised to form a government in a state where in the 2009 Assembly elections it had managed to get just four seats out of 90. The Haryana election dispelled the myth that the BJP was only an urban party as it won seats in rural and urban areas alike. Although it coasted to victory largely on the back of the support of non-Jat castes in Haryana, its seat tally suggested Jats had abandoned the Congress in some areas and elected to go with the BJP. The Om Prakash Chautala-led Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) suffered a loss in the number of seats but its vote share remained a respectable 24 per cent. A two-member team of observers comprising former BJP president Venkaiah Naidu and Dinesh Sharma will oversee the election of a leader of the legislature party.
Taking advantage of recrimination and bitterness between the BJP and erstwhile ally Shiv Sena after the results trickled in, the NCP jumped in the fray hoping the BJP would take it up on its offer, thereby forcing the Sena into adopting the role of the principal opposition party.
In a tweet, Prime Minister Narendra Modi hailed the electoral verdict as historic. In New Delhi, party president Amit Shah said the BJP had emerged as the single largest party in Maharashtra and would form the government. He said the NCP had offered unconditional outside support to the BJP. "NCP doesn't want to be a part of the government," he said. Shah stressed that it wasn't the BJP that severed ties with the Shiv Sena, and that the Sena's Anant Geete continued to be a minister in the Modi government while the two parties still ran civic bodies in Maharashtra, including in Mumbai, in an alliance. Shah said the results had vindicated the BJP's demand for more seats in both Haryana and Maharashtra from its erstwhile allies.
Negotiations are still on and it is the BJP's top leadership which will have the final word. The BJP parliamentary board, its highest decision-making body, met in the evening in Delhi. Former BJP president Rajnath Singh and vice-president J P Nadda will go to Mumbai to hold consultations, elicit the views of the legislature party and elect a leader. BJP leaders said no overtures had been made by them to the Sena leadership. The Sena said it would await a call from the BJP. The process of wooing a disaffected partner is now on, with both conscious of the fact that they cannot do without the other. This logjam is likely to be broken in the next two days.
It is clear that the management of a coalition will need a degree of seasoned leadership and while the BJP's party chief in Maharashtra, Devendra Fadnavis, got warm words of praise from Narendra Modi at various rallies, whether the BJP's future allies will have a veto over his candidature as chief minister remains to be seen. This is another reason for the NCP to jump rapidly in the breach with its promise of support without conditions, anticipating that in the BJP there might be little patience with the Sena's posturing.
The immediate effect of the BJP's electoral performance is that the party will now feel empowered to take some decisions it has been putting off since May when it came to power at the Centre. This includes an expansion of the Modi government and an election in Delhi, important bureaucratic appointments like that of the Central Vigilance Commissioner and policy decisions like revamping the Public Distribution System and a road map for coal block allocation after the recent Supreme Court verdict on the issue. Within the BJP, the electoral verdict is a huge shot in the arm for Shah as well as Modi. This will mean a degree of autonomy for Shah, especially in Uttar Pradesh where the BJP is working hard to give a new face to the party. Modi's colleagues in the government - whether Sushma Swaraj or Rajnath Singh or Arun Jaitley - will now be even more firmly settled as second-rank leaders, nipping in the bud any tendencies to complain about Modi's centralised leadership style.
But objective problems in decision-making remain. The complexion of the Rajya Sabha where the government does not have a majority and is dependent on the ADMK to get its way will remain the same. Vacancies in the Upper House will not arise till mid-2016. That is the time the balance will swing in favour of the NDA government. Till then, despite its newfound confidence, the BJP will have to rein in its swagger and defer to the main opposition parties to get its agenda cleared in the Rajya Sabha; so any controversial decisions that involve constitutional changes like altering Article 370 or a uniform civil code will have to wait.