Can BJP regain ground in Gujarat?

The Patidar stir's young leader has been contained for quite a while but whether the government can make adequate use of this time to defuse the situation and ensure normalcy remains to be seen

A letter written to Gujarat Chief Minister Anandiben Patel by 22-year-old Patidar (Patel) community leader Hardik Patel, two days before his release from jail after nine months in detention, indictes trouble might be far from over for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Nine months under a sedition charge has turned the orator into a writer, with the missive carrying phrases like 'satyamev jayate' (truth alone prevails) and 'cleansing filthy politics', among others.

Hardik also compares himself to a lion, even as he asks his mother in the letter to consider him a soldier killed in a war. The letter proves nothing has changed for Hardik, granted bail on July 8 and 11 by the Gujarat high court in separate cases of sedition and rioting, on the condition of staying outside Gujarat for six months and outside Mehsana for another three months.

According to Patidar community leaders, the young firebrand will be heading towards Uttar Pradesh. Hardik has said he would "continue to work for the community", within or outside the state, reiterated recently by his father, Bharat Patel. "He stayed nine months in jail. Now, he will stay outside Gujarat for six months. At least, he will be able to eat food of his choice. He will work for the community from anywhere in the country. Many parents send their children to study abroad for years. We will assume our son has gone to study for six months," the senior Patel had said.

Hardik has already helped set up the Patidar Navnirman Sena in UP, through which he could do some damage to the BJP ahead of the Assembly elections in the north Indian state early next year.

In all probability, Hardik's bail, which the state government claims is because of its lenient approach to placate the agitating Patidar community, might not end things soon. The state government seems to have read the forecast well, with Cabinet minister and Gujarat BJP President Vijay Rupani appealing to Patidars to stop the agitation, hours after the court granted the bail. "We hope those associated with the agitation show a positive approach to make sure social harmony is maintained," Rupani had said.

What needs to be seen is what transpires within the state in Hardik's absence. So far, the state government and ruling party have been firing salvoes in the form of announcements of packages, schemes and policies. The latest was the ordinance issued on May 1 for an additional 10 per cent quota under the economically backward classes (EBC), which has received poor response so far from the community.

The government hopes these steps will placate the community somehow. Says Rupani. "Under the Mukhya Mantri Yuva Swavlamban Yojana, the government had provided opportunities of higher study to needy sections. Apart from that, the Patidar agitation has been resolved by implementing 10 per cent reservation for the unreserved class without decreasing the reservation available to SC/ST/OBC categories."

Vidyut Joshi, a city-based social scientist, commends the government for expediting bail to Hardik. In fact, he feels that given some time, this move could soften the community's antagonistic stance against the government.

However, he adds, the BJP "might recover 20 per cent of the lost ground", no more. He points to the local body polls in end-2015 that saw the ruling party lose in rural seats to the Congress, while retaining the urban ones.

Others say it will need much more to dissuade the agitating community. "It might be too late for the state government to regain lost ground. Nine months of jail has already won favour from many young Patidars for Hardik. Also, despite the Rs 1,000 crore package and 10 per cent EBC additional quota, the core issues with the Patidar community still prevail, of farmers and unemployment," says Yagnik.

The Anandiben Patel government has one more state budget to go before Gujarat goes for elections in December 2017. An above normal monsoon could help, though the current rainfall deficit is over 50 per cent.

Another threat is the possibility of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) support to the agitating community. The day Hardik was granted bail was also when Delhi chief minister and national AAP convenor Arvind Kejriwal was in Gujarat. Experts are divided on who would get hit the most if the AAP were to gain from the agitation. For now, it seems to be the Congress party, which has so far not been able to capitalise on the agitation, despite winning rural areas in the local body polls last year.

"The Congress has not capitalised on the agitation. They don't have a proper reservation cell or a strategist who could build bridges with Patidar leaders," Joshi opines.

"People are still angry with the government because of its serious charge of sedition against a 22-year-old. The agitation is likely to continue. On our part, we will continue to raise issues that are plaguing the farming and trading communities, apart from unemployment," says Arjun Modhwadia, former Gujarat Congress president.

For the government in Gujarat, this means it will have to remain on its toes and continue to work towards improving the agri-economy and employment generation. Its budget has in the past couple of years raised allocation for the social sector. Time will tell who between the young Patidar leader and the government is able to make the most of the nine months ahead.

BIRTH OF THE PATIDAR AGITATION

2015

• Jul 6: Agitation kicked off by Sardar Patel Group (SPG) with first set of 12 rallies
   
• Jul 23: Twelfth rally at Visnagar turns violent, gets media attention
   
• Aug 1-25: Second set of rallies organised by Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) and SPG
   
• Aug 25: The mega rally at GMDC ground in Ahmedabad ends with Hardik Patel's detention, police excess and incidents of violence across parts of the state
   
• SEP 13: PAAS announces reverse Dandi foot march to Ahmedabad, later calls it off
   
• SEP 14: First round of talks held between 20 Patidar leaders from PAAS and SPG with CM Anandiben Patel and other Cabinet ministers
  

 

SEP 19: Hardik Patel and 35 others detained for trying to take out the Ekta Yatra without permission
 

SEP 24: The Gujarat government announces Rs 1,000 crore scheme for youths. Patidars term it as 'lollipop'
 

SEP 26: Activist Umesh Patel from Rajkot commits suicide in support of agitation
 

OCT 1: Patidar community women protest in various parts of the state with rolling pins and steel plates
 

OCT 18: Hardik Patel arrested while attempting to disrupt an ODI cricket match between India and South Africa at Rajkot. Charged with sedition
 

OCT 27: Gujarat High Court refuses to quash cases of sedition against Hardik Patel

 

DEC 2: BJP loses in several district and taluka panchayat seats in rural areas in local body polls

2016

• Jan 29: Surat court denies bail to Hardik Patel in sedition case
   
• MAR 11: Another meeting between cabinet ministers' committee and Patidar leaders turns inconclusive
   
• APR 17: PAAS, SPG organise 'jail bharo andolan' (fill the jails) to press for Hardik's release, turns violent in Mehsana, injuring SPG leader Lalji Patel in police clash. Curfew imposed
   
• APR 18: Patidar leaders meet seven-member Cabinet committee. Meeting termed 'positive'
   
• MAY 1: Gujarat govt passes ordinance for 10% additional quota under economically backward class (EBC); Patidars term it 'lollipop', too
  

 

July 8 & 11: Gujarat HC grants bail to Hardik Patel in sedition and rioting cases; asks him to stay away from state for six months