Can Narendra Modi afford to dump Amit Shah?

The master strategist's ability to manage election campaigns have made him the political heavy he is today

Is Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi's close aide Amit Shah an asset or liability in this make or break elections? There is, however, no direct answer to the question at this juncture. Probably, Modi confidant Shah’s alleged involvement in snooping on a young woman by Gujarat Police could prove extremely damaging for the Hindutva mascot in the run up to the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. 

 

Last week, two investigative portals — Cobrapost and Gulail — claimed that Shah, the former home minister of Gujarat had ordered illegal surveillance of a woman at the behest of one “saheb” in July 2009. They had released taped conversation between Shah and an IPS officer to back up their claim, adding that its authenticity could not be confirmed. Congress general secretary Shakeel Ahmed tweeted: "For 'saheb' Amit Shah, then MoS Home, used cops to snoop on a young woman from Gujarat. Everyone asking who is the 'saheb'? Media speculating!" 

 

However, as soon as the tapes were revealed Pranlal Soni, father of the woman who was allegedly stalked, came out with a statement saying how he himself had requested Modi to “look after” his daughter.

 

While the Congress party demanded an inquiry into the matter by a sitting Supreme Court judge, the BJP dismissed the allegations, claiming it was the Congress party which was invading the girl's privacy. Political pundits are of the view that the BJP has very little choice at present. It has projected Modi as the prime ministerial candidate. And Shah is Modi’s most important protégé, the only leader who enjoys his full confidence. 

 

The saffron party has much to fear from a thorough investigation for one simple reason: if Shah is proved complicit in the alleged surveillance case, Modi will also be widely held morally and politically culpable. This would upset the BJP’s applecart — probably to the point of making Modi a political liability, and the party’s bid to gain power in Delhi will turn out to be a damp squib.

 

Shah has been Modi’s ‘master strategist’ and managed all the three elections the Chief Minister has won in Gujarat. Arrested in a double fake encounter case and now on bail, Shah had received a fillip in July this year when he was appointed the BJP in-charge of Uttar Pradesh for the 2014 elections. The CM was looking for a berth outside Gujarat for Shah as he could not accommodate his right-hand man in his cabinet owing to the two fake-encounter cases in which Shah figures. The appointment also averted a possible clash between Shah and Anandiben Patel, Modi’s likely successor in Gujarat.

Party insiders said Shah was appointed for the heartland job because of his work in Gujarat has reaped huge benefits for Modi and the BJP. The BJP’s downward slide in UP from the high of the Ayodhya movement has never been arrested. The party now accounts for just 10 of the state’s 80 MPs.  

It remains to be seen if the crucial strategist can deliver in UP’s completely different caste and communal dynamics. Early bird reports from the state point to a growing enthusiasm for Modi in many urban as well as in rural clusters.

 

In June 2004, Shah was Modi’s right-hand man at the time college girl Ishrat Jahan, and three male companions were shot dead on Ahmedabad’s outskirts by the police, who claimed the quartet were on a mission to assassinate the Chief Minister.  In September, DG Vanzara — a suspended DIG who is behind bars in connection with a string of alleged fake encounters — resigned from the Indian Police Service after dubbing Modi a fallen god who was under the "evil influence" of the BJP leader’s lieutenant Shah.

 

Shah, a biochemistry graduate who began his career as an RSS volunteer and leader of its student wing ABVP. Later he became Gujarat BJP vice-president. He has been an MLA since 1997 and now represents Naranpura constituency.

 

Modi was an RSS pracharak when he came in touch with Shah in the late 1980s. They worked together through Modi’s stint as state BJP secretary, national general secretary and Gujarat chief minister. Modi had inducted Shah into his cabinet in 2002. That year, when the BJP won 127 of Gujarat’s 182 Assembly seats, Shah won by the highest margin — over 1.58 lakh — from Sarkhej. 

 

For all the turmoil the party has been through in the state, Shah has remained steadfastly attached to Modi. Political pundits say when Modi has been attacking the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government for alleged scams, corruption and misgovernance, he cannot be seen to be siding with someone who is said to have taken law in his own hands.