 "Challenge of delivering the magic number is Modi-centric")
Admittedly, it looks a hard slog. Not only does BJP have to better its lifetime record of 189 (in 1999); it has to contend with the fact that it is near-absent in five states, accounting for almost 170 seats of 545.
Unlike previously, when it capitalised on a mobilisation around the Ram Mandir, it only has the Congress party as the focus of attack. And, more than a dozen national and regional parties are attacking the Congress as well, so there is no brand differentiator.
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What it does have is a leader, Narendra Modi, who is emphasising on the leadership deficit in the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA). And, is offering himself as an alternative - a person of humble origins as opposed to the Nehru-Gandhi rule by one family - projecting himself as a leader unafraid of taking tough decisions.
Modi has taken a conscious decision not to dwell on caste - he is a Teli, a backward caste in some states, a scheduled caste in some others - but on governance. In his speeches so far, he has barely referred to the BJP's past governments and their achievements (such as building the 'Golden Quadrilateral' of highways or on national security). Dwelling, instead, on his transformation of Gujarat - in terms of water security, industrialisation, management of land acquisition issues, agricultural growth and progress of tribal communities.
This is completely at odds with the Modi image that people have, of a man who has demonstrated he can break the back of minority assertion and, in popular parlance, has shown the minorities their place. There is a mismatch here. The fear of a Modi-led government is driving the minorities away but the thrill of a potential Hindu consolidation is absent - it lacks an edge.
His unifying link, of Sardar Patel, also has little traction in deep rural India.
Apart from the challenge of ideology, there is also the challenge of organisation. Few sitting MPs know him - there is no organic link between him and the BJP parliamentary party. Unlike L K Advani who can identify and is identified by every MP, Modi would be hard-pressed to recall the names of all his 116 party MPs. This is because he has spent little time in Delhi. In the organisation, therefore, there is a very slight but, nevertheless, very palpable hesitation in leaping to his aid. Combine this with the undeniable streak of ruthlessness in dealing with party rivals - the decimation of colleague Sanjay Joshi being a case in point - that makes him an unknown and somewhat feared quantity in the party. No one would describe him as being an affable man.
So, there is a small group in BJP that believes justice will not be done to it if Modi becomes the tallest leader. This is not to say they will be able to prevent this event. Only that in all quarters, he is seen as an unpredictable quantity.
Still, that said, he has been endorsed as the BJP's prime ministerial candidate. The challenge of delivering 272 seats is his, personally.
The current strategy of BJP is to work hard in the 120 seats that comprise UP (80) and Bihar (40). In 2009, the party contested 71 seats in UP, leaving nine to allies. This time, the allies have joined the party and it will contest all 80 seats. The party's public face is likely to be younger; the 40-something supporter of BJP is now coming out, having been reassured that the older leaders will be put out to pasture. A generational shift is taking place, effected by Modi in remote control. This could have an unpredictable result.
In Bihar, BJP will contest on its own for the first time. It is hard to assess how much its seats will increase from the current 12. It is certain to get upper caste votes. But this alone will not get it the seats it needs.
To reach 272 on its own, a Modi-led government needs at least 80 of the 120 in Bihar and UP. This seems a tall order at present.