Consider the evidence: Does India, at last, have a friend in the Maldives?

Ibrahim Mohamed Solih of the opposition Maldives Democratic Party (MDP) won the presidential elections last week but there has been an inexplicable delay by the Election Commission in announcing the final result. Meanwhile, the Army has ‘clarified’ it has no intention of interceding in the ‘result of the people’. That it needed to clear the air is significant in itself. 

First, about the country

The Maldives was a single-party state till 2008. The executive was in charge of the civil service, the security forces, the judiciary and had control over parliament, People’s Majlis, through a ‘constitutionally appointed’ group of MPs. The country was ruled for 30 years by Maumoon Abdul Gayoom after the country won its independence from the British in 1965.

Gayoom was challenged by Mohamed Nasheed, who became president of the Maldives in 2008 after forming his Maldivian Democratic Party in exile, contesting the presidential elections and winning 54 per cent of the vote. A new constitution was formulated but in 2012, Nasheed was overthrown with the help of security forces and put under home detention. In 2013, fresh presidential elections were held and Abdulla Yameen (Gayoom’s half-brother) became president through what Nasheed supporters say was a rigged election, because he managed to break several of Nasheed’s alliance partners with offers of office and concessions. What added edge to the drama was that for several hours after, Nasheed sought 'refuge' in the Indian High Commission, making India a factor in the internal politics of the Maldives. He was in prison for nine months, was tried and found guilty of terrorism and given a 13-year jail sentence. When elections came around in 2018, he nominated his brother-in-law and old friend, Solih, as the joint opposition candidate against Yameen. Despite allegations of rigging, Solih won the election. Now, with nearly two weeks to go for the formal transition of power, the world is watching whether Yameen will go or simply say ‘oh no, I won’t go’.

How the Maldives works

The Maldives has a population of 350,000, largely dependent on tourism and fishing. India and Sri Lanka are its major partners. Politics derives from islands, which have investment from big hotel chains; a crucial element of the Maldivian politics is that no matter what the country goes through, politicians are conscious that tourism and tourists should not be scared away.

Most raw materials needed to run the resorts come from Kerala. During his presidency, Nasheed acknowledged this fact. But, his ouster by Yameen saw a recalibration of the Maldives’ foreign policy. 

The China factor

When he became president, Yameen attempted to broad-base the foreign policy of the Maldives, hoping foreign powers would help secure his own position if it was threatened. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s September 2014 visit to the Maldives was his first visit to South Asia, signaling the balance of power dimension to India. Xi was accompanied by a 100-member business delegation and mooted the idea of a Maritime Silk Road connectivity between China and the Maldives. As this required land, the Maldives constitution, (which previously prohibited foreign ownership of any part of Maldivian territory, but allowed leasing of land for up to 99 years) was amended to allow foreigners who invest more than $1billion, to purchase land within the project site. 

Meanwhile, the number of Chinese tourists to the Maldives increased from about 12,000 in 2012 to 120,506 in November 2017, a 15.2 per cent increase compared to the 104,572 tourists in November 2016.

Other agreements signed between the Maldives and China have seriously worried India. The Maldivian offer to China to develop its main airport as part of its iHaven project was a key scheme in Yameen’s economic programme. It had six main goals — developing an airport, a harbour, bunkering services, real estate, shopping malls, and resorts. Now, even before the change of guard is complete, Nasheed is offering a stake to India, eliciting an instant angry riposte from China.

What now

Until the transfer of power takes place, the world is holding its breath. Once Solih becomes president, a new chapter will begin — for the Maldives and also India.