Delhi and Chhattisgarh still a mystery as polling ends today

The Aam Aadmi Party threat and the high voter turnout in Chhattisgarh are the reasons

The threat of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi and the puzzle of a high voter turnout in the tribal areas of Chhattisgarh continues to dog both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), as the current round of Assembly elections comes to a close on Wednesday.

As elections to the five state Assemblies are widely seen as signposts to the general polls in 2014, the biggest question mark is on the state that went to the polls first (Chhattisgarh) and the one going last (Delhi).

In Chhattisgarh (a 90-member Assembly) all eyes are on fourteen tribal seats in Surguja (North Chhattisgarh) and fifteen tribal seats in Bastar (South Chhattisgarh). These regions swung decisively from the Congress to the BJP in 2003, and repeated the BJP in 2008. According to lawyers and human rights activists in the region, these seats will swing back to the Congress in 2013.

The secular increase in vote share almost everywhere except in the cities suggests the ruling BJP might be at a disadvantage in the state. The central plains of Chhattisgarh have been divided almost equally between the Congress and the BJP.

The complexity of the newest political kid on the block, the AAP, continues to confound both, the Congress and the BJP in Delhi. Internally, the BJP concedes that AAP will cut into potential opposition voters: young first time voters and the middle classes. But it is still not clear how credible the AAP candidate is despite a feeling of sympathy and a groundswell of popular support. Public anger against the Congress runs deep. But this has not necessarily become a tide in favour of the BJP.

In Delhi, BJP and Congress workers both are a worried lot as the city prepares to cast its vote on Wednesday. In both states, the jury is out on the certainty of the outcome.