Delhi polls: who'll sink or swim?

Narendra Modi's biggest test will be to upset the Sheila Dikshit government in Delhi. That will show whether the Modi magic really works

Winning Delhi assembly poll is critical to the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) strategy for next year’s general election. A defeat in the Capital will certainly send the signal that the Narendra Modi magic does not work among urban voters. For, the Assembly poll results will be seen as a semi-final for Modi’s Delhi dreams.

The Hindutva mascot will face the first real test of his charisma and credibility outside Gujarat when Delhi votes on December 4, since the saffron party is banking on him to deliver the Capital from the Congress in the absence of a powerful local leader.

On the last day of campaigning, Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit launched a frontal attack on Modi and came up with comparative figures to prove that Delhi has been performing much better than Gujarat on several fronts. The CM claimed to have won all the three elections on the plank of good governance and said it remained the plank this time too.

Nor does anti-incumbency seem to be posing too hard a challenge for the Congress party, thanks to the leadership of Dikshit, who has transformed the city’s infrastructure. Still, things could take a downturn for the Grand Old Party this time as Delhi grapples with corruption, price rise and crime — some of these perceived to be of the United Progressive Alliance’s making. Of a total of 70 seats in the Delhi Assembly, the Congress won 43 and 47 in the 2008 and 2003 elections respectively. The BJP won 23 and 20 seats.

The debut of a third force in the shape of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), built on a theme of ‘give an honest party’ a chance, has foxed the main two parties. The nascent party has been claiming that it will win 47 seats, while both the Congress and the BJP have till now steered clear of any such assertions. Led by Arvind Kejriwal, the AAP is fighting all the 70 Assembly seats.

The AAP has built its campaign on the plank of ridding Delhi of both the Congress and the BJP. However, the latest ABP News-Dainik Bhaskar-Neilsen opinion poll has predicted a hung assembly with the BJP emerging the largest party with 32 seats. Contrary to predictions of a dream debut for the AAP, it said the rookie would manage around 10 seats with 23% of the votes.

The AAP’s election campaign is Kejriwal-centric. So party posters everywhere have pictures of Kejriwal and the “jhaadu” (broom), the AAP symbol. With the battle in its last lap, Kejriwal is frequently on radio and television. The activist-turned-politician has pledged to change politics and the future of Delhi. A defeat for his party, he says, would affect the people, not him.

The focus on one man could prove to be AAP’s biggest strength and also its biggest weakness. If people decide to cast their vote on the basis of Kejriwal’s image, the party is through. But if they decide on the basis of contestants as most of them are first-timers and new faces, the party cannot hope to win more than a couple of seats.

Although the CM takes pride in her government’s social welfare schemes, the emphasis of the campaign is on infrastructure, transport, institutions and hospitals. The unrelenting rise in prices of vegetables and other edible items is threatening to undo the gains of work done for the poor and visible infrastructure development in the national capital.

Also, the Congress has to strive hard because the last few years haven't been easy for Dikshit. The 2010 Commonwealth Games (CWG) were attacked for financial bungling and shabby construction. The Congress government was criticised for over-spending by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India and indicted in the Shunglu Committee report.

The saffron party’s biggest concern is that its middle and upper class voters, barring the committed ones from the RSS stream, might support AAP if they were determined to vote out the Congress. To compound the BJP’s woes, its Delhi veterans like V K Malhotra, Vijay Goel and Vijendra Gupta are either grounded in the constituencies of their nominees or in their own. Gupta is fighting Dikshit and Kejriwal. Malhotra, who was projected as the chief ministerial candidate the last time, is focused on his son Ajay's win while Goel reportedly turned 'cold' once Harshvardhan was chosen as the chief ministerial face.

Harshvardhan was chosen as the top brass believed that he's greater acceptability among all sections of voters. Goel had lost the 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha elections from Delhi, the last against Congress leader and Union minister Ajay Maken.

The leadership tussle in the state BJP may cast a shadow on the party’s poll prospects in a state it hopes to wrest after 15 years. Delhi seems to reflect the national mood and if the BJP lose the election, it means the country has still not accepted Modi as BJP's prime minister-designate.