Divorce from BJP may erode Nitish's vote bank

By endorsing Advani as PM, it will be difficult for Nitish to justify the Babri demolition before minority voters

After the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) announced the appointment of its Hindutva mascot, Narendra Modi, to lead its election campaign committee for the Lok Sabha and Assembly polls, the popular mood in Bihar seems to point to a decisive tilt in the state's political preference. And Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is, by all indications, not emerging as a clear gainer. Seventeen years down the line, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is on the edge with Nitish locking horns with the BJP on Modi.

 

On Wednesday, the Janata Dal’s (United) no-holds-barred attack on Modi triggered bitter exchanges between allies. Nitish has indicated to his war-room to prepare to go it alone in the state. The Bihar CM wants to balance both the worlds as he once said: “Sometimes you have to wear a topi (cap) and sometimes sport a tilak.”  His Gujarat counterpart refused to wear the skull cap that a maulana had offered him during his Sadbhavna fast in Ahmedabad two years ago.

Secular vs communal? 

The former Samata Party, which merged with the JD(U), was the first to accord secular legitimacy to the BJP in the post-Babri Masjid demolition years.  In 1996, it was the then Samata Party that decided to contest the Lok Sabha polls in alliance with the BJP for the first time. The reason for this was the party, led by George Fernandes and Nitish, had fought the Bihar elections in alliance with the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation in February-March 1995.  It ended up winning just seven out of 324 assembly seats.  After the demolition of the Babri Masjid, the BJP was treated as a political untouchable by the so-called secular parties. Yet, Nitish did not hesitate in changing his colour from red to saffron.

 

The BJP has lost most of its secular partners at present. The JD(U) continues to back the Advani-led faction in the BJP. Nitish wants to make the ‘Advani-Modi tussle’ an issue and support the former for his own political ends. By endorsing Advani as PM, it would be, however, difficult for Nitish to justify the demolition of the Babri Masjid before the minority voters in the state.

MY combination 

Lalu Yadav

Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) boss Lalu Prasad knows that there can be no change in Bihar’s power equation if he cannot consolidate his MY (Muslim-Yadav) combination again. The RJD chief stressed that he, as Bihar CM, had got Advani arrested when he was on his rath yatra to Ayodhya. Nitish, on the other hand, flagged off Advani’s yatra (2011) from Sitab Diara. Since 2005, Lalu’s famed combination got effectively demolished by the JD(U)-BJP’s Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), Mahadalits, upper castes combination. 

 

Lalu wants to strike a chord with the Muslim population who constitute anything between 16 and 18% of the state’s electorate.  At a parivartan rally in May, Lalu called Nitish “a pet parrot of the communal RSS-BJP”, who, he alleged, “had turned a blind eye on Muslim youths picked up from various parts of the state on the pretext of their involvement in terror.

Nitish, too, is eyeing the same vote bank, by distancing himself from the BJP over Modi. Some of the CM's supporters believe that by breaking with the BJP on Modi’s leadership issue, Nitish will effect an en masse movement of Muslim votes to the JD(U). 

RJD is optimistic that Nitish’s popularity among Muslims has eroded after the police firing incident at Forbesganj (Araria) in June 2011. Top political heavyweights are of the view that if Lalu manages to convince that Modi is coming, Muslims will ensure his comeback.

Caste calculations 

Nitish has attracted near-total support from the EBCs, comprising as many as 94 small castes that are positioned socially between the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Dalits.  These castes cumulatively account for around 32% of the population. His efforts for the welfare of Mahadalits, the weakest among the Dalits, also ensured support for him from a number of Dalit communities.

The RJD-LJP combine is essentially banking on a backlash from the Yadavs, an OBC community. And a section of the upper castes who are upset with the empowerment of EBCs and Mahadalits.

The upper castes -- Brahmins, Rajputs, Bhumihars and Kayasthas, that together account for nearly 14% -- are disillusioned with the Nitish government but don't really have a viable alternative at present.

 

Observers of Bihar politics say Nitish deliberately maintains a good rapport with some upper caste faces — water resource minister Vijay Kumar Choudhary, a Bhumihar, and Sanjay Jha, a Brahmin, to tactfully drive home the message of maintaining the caste balance.  

Both the JD(U) and the BJP are busy in getting a grip on the combinations that have voted for the alliance — EBCs, Bhumihars, Brahmins, Koeris, Kurmis, Baniyas etc.

Kissa kursi ka 

 

So what is fuelling Nitish’s anti-Modi tirade? In 2008, during a debate on a no-trust motion in the Lok Sabha, Lalu in his jocular style had said that everybody, including himself, wanted to become the prime minister, but he wasn’t in a hurry. This PM bug seems to have bitten Nitish.  

 

Experts are of the view that Nitish is duplicating the error committed by Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) supremo Ram Vilas Paswan after the Bihar polls in February 2005. Driven by the urge to play the kingmaker after a fractured verdict, Paswan did not ally with Lalu, causing both to lose out to Nitish in the elections that were held again after nine-month’s of President rule. Will Nitish’s anti-Modi posture bring about a Paswan-like fate for him?

Third Front

On Wednesday, the JD (U) sent a special emissary to Kolkata to talk to West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee who along with Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik emerged as the prime movers of the third front — the federal front in their words.

The Trinamool Congress chief wanted Nitish to play a crucial role in firming up the federal front of backward states including Bihar, Bengal and Odisha.

The yet-to-be-formed third front will help the BJP as it will create division in the secular votes. 

Congress: Wait & watch 

Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi’s resolve to rebuild the party in Bihar, instead of surviving through alliances, is the prime reason the Congress has maintained a distance from the RJD.

While an alliance with the JD(U) appears to be a dream scenario, the Congress is closely keeping a watch on Nitish’s next move before committing anything.  Apart from electoral considerations, the short-term strategy of the Congress is to block Modi's prime ministerial candidature by instigating Nitish to break away from the NDA even if he stays unaligned like   Patnaik.

 

There is one school of thought that argues the primary  reason may be for Nitish tying up with Congress would be to prevent a consolidation of opposition forces-an RJD- Lok Janshakti Party(LJP)-Congress combine could defeat JD(U) if it were to fight alone.

 

It is safe to say that development and relatively improved law and order situation are Nitish’s USP.