Ex-CMs may lose out as BJP regains ground in MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh

Amid questions over tenability of Chouhan, Raje and Singh, the BJP prepares the ground to project new leaders in MP, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh

The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) astounding comeback in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh in the Lok Sabha election — after  reverses in the Assembly polls in these three states — was ascribed to the success of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to override the factors that brought the party down in December last year.  Among the reasons cited for the setback was the inability of the then chief ministers to sustain the gains that accrued to the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, and thereafter build on the “achievements” of the Modi government. 

Shortly afterwards, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Vasundhara Raje and Raman Singh (former chief ministers of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, respectively) were relocated to the central organisation as vice-presidents but not assigned specific responsibilities in the parliamentary polls, other than campaign in their states or outside as in Chouhan’s case. How did the BJP’s central establishment envisage the future of Chouhan, Raje and Singh, who were virtually monarchs of their turfs? Chouhan at 60 and Raje and Singh at 66 can hardly be thought of as being over the hill. But the BJP’s new notion of demographics, with stress on nurturing “young” leaders, raised questions over the trio’s tenability.

“The three were given enough opportunities to show their worth. A time must come when a peer group of leaders has to be phased out and a new generation ushered in,” said a BJP office-bearer. Chouhan and Singh had successful innings. Chouhan was chief minister for 13 uninterrupted years and Singh for 15 years. Raje served two five-year terms with a break. 

Chouhan loyalists insisted his “pre-eminence” in MP was unquestioned. “He was the only ex-CM who had a chopper at his disposal for campaigning (in the parliamentary election). He was in demand not only in the state but outside. He is clear that he will not move to the Centre. He could have been considered for the post of BJP president (if the current incumbent Amit Shah makes way for a successor after becoming  home minister) but he does not want to leave MP,” a source close to him claimed.

“That’s because he feels safer on home ground. Without the MP turf, he fears he will lose his relevance,” said another source.  The Congress government in Bhopal hangs by a thread, with the tenuous support of the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party. Its fall could open a window for Chouhan’s revival.

However, Chouhan’s detractors back home noted the “importance” given to Morena MP Narendra Singh Tomar in the Union Cabinet through a double-barrelled charge of agriculture and rural development fraught with significance in a state afflicted with agrarian issues. “Chouhan would have noted the value given to Tomar by Modi and Shah,” an MP BJP source said. Kailash Vijayvargiya, the general secretary cherished by Shah for turning around West Bengal, was another serious contender because like Chouhan, his appeal in MP transcended his home territory, Indore.

In Rajasthan again, the BJP’s belief was the leadership question would come into play if the Congress government “collapsed” because of its “internal contradictions”.  A central office-bearer clarified: “However, it is not a given that Vasundhara continues to be the undisputed number one. There is ground to bring in new leadership. This time we will not be intimidated by the threat of rebellion from her because she is not in a strong position to strike.” Although, as in the past, Vasundhara managed to nominate a majority of her candidates in the last assembly elections, the prospects of the elected legislators re-grouping around her, if an occasion arose, were ruled out.     

An early sign that Vasundhara could no longer have her way in Rajasthan was flashed when her old rival, Gulab Chand Kataria, was appointed the Opposition leader. Her detractors fuelled the perception by spreading the word that Rajyavardhan Rathore, Jaipur Rural MP, was being “considered” for a “bigger” role in Rajasthan when he was not inducted in Modi’s ministerial council. But Ashok Parnami, former state BJP chief, insisted: “On the ground, she is the unchallenged leader.”

In Chhattisgarh, Singh’s conclusive defeat — in the 90-member Assembly, the Congress holds 68 seats and the BJP just 15 — sealed the probability of a rebound anytime soon. His son, Abhishek, who was an MP from Rajnandgaon, was denied a ticket in a “clean-up” operation that saw most incumbents lose theirs. “Singh campaigned within the state but has been lying low thereafter,” a former MP said. 

BJP sources said keeping in mind the Congress’ “success” in building a vote bank of the other backward classes — Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel is a Kurmi — the BJP, too, consciously worked on cultivating OBC and tribal leaders. Its state President Vikram Usendi is a tribal and the leader of the Opposition, Dharamlal Kaushik, a former Singh aide, is a Kurmi. 

It seems that though Chouhan is holding out in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh might ring in leadership changes.