Farm politics dominated 2021 and its outcome will be seen in state polls

On January 26, 2021, a nation watched aghast as a group of people, purportedly farmers, climbed atop the central dome of the Red Fort and planted a flag there, making a statement about the farmers’ protests over three farm laws.

For close to 12 months, farmers blocked roads, stopped traffic, and, via their supporters in Parliament, managed to repeatedly disrupt discussion, even causing 12 MPs to be suspended from the Rajya Sabha for the entire 2021 winter session.

As the sun goes down on 2021, the government, accepting that discretion is the better part of valour, has withdrawn the farm laws and the farmers have vacated protest sites. But the cases -- against MPs, farmers, and others -- will continue. The farmers say they are not satisfied. The government has set up a committee to address their concerns. However, despite assertions by officials that the government would act in “mission mode” to satisfy the farmers, the committee is yet to be notified by the government.

The year 2021 was the year of farm politics. And in 2022, the outcome of that politics will be seen in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, which go to the polls. So will Goa, Uttarakhand, and Manipur. Burnt on the public mind is the experience of 2021, which can never be erased: The flash-fire of the second wave of Covid; the struggle to get hospital beds and oxygen; the frantic last-resort calls to elected representatives -- futile because many of them had switched off all lines of communication as they were grappling with the same problems themselves; the frustrating, unanswerable question that everyone asked -- “who is responsible” ...

Public representatives in many parts of the poll-bound states might have to answer these questions, now that another wave of the pandemic knocks at the door. The five states going to the polls represent nearly 102 Lok Sabha seats of the 545, or around 19 per cent of the total. And while the results of a Vidhan Sabha election can never be extrapolated on a general election, they are certainly an index of satisfaction with the government.

The government has not stinted on providing institutional support where it could, especially to low-income groups. So people will certainly remember the cash outlays, the free food, and medical assistance once they reach them. So if the past year was the year of a health crisis, the coming year will be a test of government credibility.

A big element of government management was the massive reshuffle in the council of ministers in July. It saw some top ministers being summarily sacked and newer, younger talent being inducted. Senior ministers like Ravishankar Prasad (law, electronics, communications) and Prakash Javadekar (education, environment) were asked to go. The charge of other ministers was lightened. This was the first comprehensive reshuffle undertaken by the prime minister since he came to power in 2019 for a second term.

The past year also saw border clashes with China, essentially a spillover of the 2020 stand-off. Although an uneasy peace reigns on the Sino-Indian boundary, New Delhi is trying to fortify border infrastructure as part of the broader Gatishakti infra-development programme, which will propel growth in the coming year. In 2021, India mended fences with the US after President Joe Biden took over in the White House, though challenges of human rights and the way India treats its religious minorities persist.

The government is not without its critics, and Treasury-Opposition relations in Parliament reached their lowest ebb in the year. Parties other than the ruling outfit tried to reinvent themselves: A split in the Punjab unit of the Congress led to Amarinder Singh walking out of the party after he was replaced by Charanjit Channi as chief minister. The clamour for decisive leadership in the Congress grew louder, leading to party President Sonia Gandhi announcing a schedule for organisational elections, which will see fruition mid-2022.

After its exhilarating victory in the West Bengal Assembly elections, Trinamool Congress President and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has set her sights higher, dreaming of an all-India footprint for the party.

Early 2023 will see another round of crucial state elections -- in Gujarat, for instance. Preparations for these will begin in 2022. If the outcome in UP and other states is to the Centre’s satisfaction, that could mean its policies, including income and food support to the low-income groups, are working. As with all governments, this could be a temptation to keep extending support, holding off structural reform.

Next year will help determine how much structural reform really matters. If the U-turn on the farm laws is any indication, everything is negotiable -- as in 2002, when Atal Bihari Vajpayee as prime minister had to face extensive pressure to put off labour reforms. He resisted initially. But when he was asked whether he would, against the backdrop of fear and doubt on divestment and loss of jobs, go ahead with them, his answer was a categorical “no”. But then Vajpayee was running a complex coalition. Narendra Modi has no such compulsions.