For BJP, the challenge in Jharkhand polls is to put its own house in order

Saryu Rai, veteran Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader and cabinet minister in Jharkhand, expected a mammoth response from the party to his recent tweet which had gone viral. 

However, it garnered only 150 likes from his followers, while the BJP played it down. Rai had challenged the party’s election campaign slogan that centred around Chief Minister Raghubar Das.  In the run-up to the Assembly polls, the BJP recently launched the Ghar Ghar Raghubar campaign. 

Even as many senior leaders in the party did not approve of this slogan, only Rai aired his view publicly. “Instead of Ghar Ghar Raghubar, the slogan should have been Ghar Ghar Kamal,” he tweeted. Rai, who had exposed Bihar’s infamous fodder scam, which landed Rashtriya Janta Dal (RJD) leader Lalu Prasad in jail, suggested that the campaign must be carried out in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s name, or else the party would fail to get the desired results.

“There is a section of leaders in the party which supports Rai’s view,” a senior party leader said. The cadre and affiliated organisations are not happy with Das, he said, adding that under his leadership, the BJP lost four of the five by-elections. 

The Congress is also exploring the possibility of taking advantage of the rift. The newly elected state unit president of the Congress, Rameshwar Oraon, asserted that the Ghar Ghar Raghubar campaign would instead help the Congress’ electoral prospects. 

But the Congress has to deal with its own problems before taking on the BJP. Simmering differences within the party are now out in the open with Oraon’s anointment, forcing the high command to appoint five working presidents to bring the party back on track. 

For the chief minister, the Opposition may not be a big challenge as unity eludes it.

Bihar-centric political outfits like the RJD, the Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) and even the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) have all eyed Jharkhand to bolster their political prospects, but their efforts turned out to be a damp squib. Not only senior leaders and MLAs, but even party presidents of Bihar-centric regional parties have deserted their outfits in search of greener pastures in the BJP. RJD state president and four-time MLA Annapurna Devi stands as one of the examples. 

In Jharkhand, the scene is still hazy as to whether opposition parties will join hands. The faction-ridden Congress is yet to take a call on it, even as the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) is desperate.

JMM General Secretary Supriyo Bhattacharya said the Congress going it alone would be a big mistake. “The Congress in alliance with former chief minister Babulal Marandi-led Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) in 2014 got only seven seats, while the JMM alone secured 18 seats,” Bhattacharya said. Traditionally, the JMM has tribal and Muslim votes in its bag, and a share of OBC votes would make a big difference in its electoral outcome.

The JMM is pulling all strings to forge a formidable alliance for taking on the BJP, which is riding high on the Modi wave. The national party is brimming with confidence after winning 12 of 14 seats in the Lok Sabha election; it secured a 50.96 per cent vote share, while its nearest rivals, the Congress and the JMM, got only 15.63 per cent and 11.51 per cent votes, respectively. 

Desperate for a tie-up, the JMM's acting president, Hemant Soren, also held a secret meeting with Marandi. Soren hinted that the RJD, the JMM and the JVM could explore the possibility of contesting the state election under one umbrella.

On the other hand, the BJP’s ally JD(U) has stirred the political cauldron with Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar visiting Ranchi and propelling party workers into election mode. Political observers feel that Kumar is working on a long-drawn plan for Jharkhand, where his party is fast losing ground. The JD(U) failed to win a single seat in 2014; it had four in 2005. Its vote share has also come down to 1 per cent.

With OBC votes in its kitty, the JD(U) plans for a tough negotiation with the BJP to reach a seat-sharing deal. But it appears difficult as the BJP has set a target of 65 for itself in the 82-member House, and also has to accommodate an old ally, the All Jharkhand Student Union, and the LJP. Political observers say in any case, Kumar won't join hands with opposition parties because such a move will end his association with the National Democratic Alliance. In the worst case, his party will enter the electoral fray alone, which will be another setback for the Opposition.

For BJP poll managers and strategists, the real challenge is to put their own house in order. The party’s humiliation in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan not long back is a perfect case study.