Getting poll-ready: BJP chooses to play the 'Patidar' card in Gujarat

True to its nature of springing surprises across states, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Sunday named first-time MLA Bhupendra Rajnikant Patel chief minister of Gujarat. A day after Vijay Rupani unexpectedly resigned as chief minister without citing reasons, the ruling party went with its strategy of naming lesser-known party workers to helm state politics.

With Bhupendra Patel, a Kadva Patidar legislator from Ghatlodia in Ahmedabad and a close aide of former chief minister Anandiben Patel, the BJP has chosen to play the “Patidar” card even as it might look to appease communities like tribals and other backward classes (OBCs) through the cabinet.

While Nitin Patel and C R Paatil led the list of potential successors to Rupani, other names like former state party chief R C Faldu were doing the rounds before Bhupendra Patel’s name was announced. With heavyweights and senior legislative members sidelined, the BJP has made clear its intentions of working towards upcoming Assembly elections in December 2022 with fresh non-controversial faces and probably a younger Cabinet.

What sets Bhupendra Patel apart is not only his soft-spoken, non-controversial and clean image across party workers and within the Patidar community but also the dual support of his mentor Anandiben Patel and Union Home Minister Amit Shah.

“I express my gratitude to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah as well as central and state party leadership including C R Paatil and Vijay Rupani. Also, Anandiben Patel’s blessings are on me and will be with me. We will continue all the good work that is already being done in the state and whatever else is left we will work towards the same taking all party workers along,” Patel had told mediapersons soon after the announcement on Sunday.

Also, while he might be inexperienced in state politics and state government administration, as a former standing committee chairman of the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation for two terms and chairman of the Ahmedabad Urban Development Authority (AUDA) Bhupendra Patel brings with him city administrative experience. Armed with a diploma in civil engineering, Patel is also realtor by profession, which political observers like Hari Desai believe might come in handy in raising funds for the party ahead of elections.

Patel’s job is cut out

The change of the guard comes at a time when there is an anti-incumbency atmosphere in the state owing to what many citizens see as a mismanagement of the second wave of the pandemic. While Rupani too has a clean image, his administrative skills were being questioned, said Desai. This forced the party to make amends a year before the next assembly elections. Gujarat was one of the worst-hit states during the second wave with lack of medical oxygen and beds.

It is here that Bhupendra Patel’s lack of state government administrative experience might prove a challenge, although many believe it is the central and state party leadership that will call the shots with the chief minister being expected to follow the orders.

Secondly, the state’s economy has been suffering blow upon blow, especially in the last one and a half years of the pandemic. State GDP has seen a considerable slide in 2020-21, estimated to grow by only 0.6 per cent after slowing to 9.8 per cent in 2019-20 from a high of 17.7 per cent in 2012-13.

Gujarat’s public debt has crossed Rs 3 trillion, up from Rs 2.67 trillion in March 2020, standing at 18.14 per cent of GSDP by March 2021 as against 16.19 per cent a year before.

On the other hand, central government funding has dipped by 32 per cent for Gujarat as against 2019-20 with the state set to receive only about Rs 17,000 crore compared to about Rs 25,000 crore previously. But Desai says this may not pose much of a problem for Bhupendra Patel, who might be here for a short run until Assembly elections next year. “The BJP is not interested in the economy of the state but more on consolidating Hindu vote banks as well as appease other communities in contention,” added Desai.

If so, Patel’s job might get just easier, given that Patidars would anyday prefer a Patel over a Paatil or a Rupani, provided the Patel doesn’t create fresh troubles, i.e. Nitin.

On Sunday, when all the senior party leaders including Paatil and Rupani stayed back to congratulate Bhupendra Patel, a visibly upset Nitin left early while telling mediapersons on the way that he had nothing to comment. Apparently, Nitin Patel had fought his way for the finance portfolio after the 2017 Assembly elections, remaining incommunicado for two days before the party leadership relented.

So will he create fresh trouble for the new chief minister? Quite unlikely, said Desai. “Nitin Patel has lost his bargaining power. The BJP might not relent this time. When the Congress had offered him to move to the party with 12 MLAs, he hesitated. Now with Bhupendra as CM, Kadva Patels will not support Nitin if he rebels. As for Leuva Patels, they might get a representative in the cabinet such as Jayesh Radadiya,” he added.

Moreover, in a press briefing on Sunday, Paatil confirmed there were no discussions with the core committee or party leadership over the post of deputy chief minister. “Tomorrow (Monday) Bhupendra Patel will take oath, and the rest of the cabinet will be decided later. There was no discussion on deputy CM,” Paatil said.

While the Gujarat BJP works out its strategy to appease the tribals and OBCs and other communities, it might have just managed to placate the disgruntled but wealthy and politically influential Patidar community, which forms nearly 15 per cent of the voter base in the state.

It is with this confidence that Paatil said during his address on Sunday: “We are confident to win the upcoming elections under his (Bhupendra Patel) leadership.”

Meanwhile, if Vijay Rupani’s comments are any hint then the new cabinet under Bhupendra Patel might see several fresh and young faces, representing various communities.

“The BJP is a party with a difference. Today is an example of it. We have the new leadership for upcoming elections and all the MLAs will extend all support to him,” Rupani said.