Gujarat Assembly elections: Of development, inflation, and rebellion

As 89 Gujarat Assembly seats go to the polls later this week, Radhika Ramaseshan travels to Saurashtra to gauge what voters are thinking

When 89 of Gujarat’s 182 Assembly seats in the regions of Saurashtra, Kachchh, and South Gujarat would vote on December 1, the stakes for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would be high.  

Of the 54 seats in Saurashtra and Kachchh, the ruling party five years ago could win only 23, against a previous high of 36 in 2012; the Congress increased its tally to 28 from 15. The BJP compensated for its losses in South Gujarat and managed to win total of 99 seats, its lowest tally since its victory in 1995. 

The villages of Saurashtra and Kachchh hold the key to a party’s success. In 2017, the BJP suffered a reversal in the rural areas because of unrest in the dominant Patidar or Patel community, negative returns on crops, damage to the cotton yields from inadequate and uneven irrigation, and the teething problems from the GST regime which impacted farmers and traders alike. 

This election, the Patidars have decided to return to the BJP, following the 10 per cent reservation for the economically weaker sections (recently upheld by the Supreme Court). Achuyut Jasani, Rajkot-based CEO of Anand International, a manufacturer, supplier and exporter of dyes, and member of the Saurashtra Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said: “The Agrarian unrest is practically over. Our region’s economy has reached the pre-Covid levels. Cotton has been a success story in the past two years and spinning has had the best time in 10 years. The Narmada water supply is a major strand of success.

Can you think, even Kachchh, barring the desert area, is a green belt that has floriculture?” 

In Chotila, a town which is 46 km to Rajkot’s north-east, the Patidar agitation and agrarian problems cost the BJP the seat in 2017. The BJP replaced its candidate, Jina Delwalaya with Shyamji Chauhan, a backward caste Koli, a community that accounts for 60 per cent of Chotila’s 250,000 electorates. Dashrath Sinh Rana, the BJP’s constituency minder, claimed: “There are no problems for us because Modiji’s (PM Narendra Modi) sabka saath, sabka vikas is a reality and not a slogan.” 

A few metres away, at a motor parts outlet, Mukesh Somabhai, a Dalit, belied Rana’s contention. “Price rise is unbearable. A gas cylinder costs Rs 1,100, so we went back to using firewood.” To this Rana’s answer was: “If a farmer earned Rs 500 for a quintal of cotton 10 years ago, today he gets nearly Rs 8000. Prices will rise as development spreads. Those who complain of food being costly can go to one of the numerous temples dotting Saurashtra at meal times and get free food.” 

A senior BJP functionary at Rajkot admitted: “We have problems. As many as 45 members raised their voices after tickets were given, which is a record. The issue is not of defeat but of getting an invincible lead over our opponents. Our leadership is obsessed with touching the 151 mark and local revolts have made the task tougher.” 

In Saurashtra, the BJP suspended four rebels, including one in Rajkot Rural, although the party has generally won all four city seats. “Modi and (Amit) Shah (the home minister) take a long-distance view of politics. Candidates were replaced because their image was undesirable owing to corruption charges and the company they kept. But this tactic doesn’t necessarily pay off each time.” 

For instance, in Chotila, where the state Congress’s working president Rutvik Makwana has to defend the seat, Manoj Otaradi, a local party secretary, said: “Last time, the BJP nominee was not educated. This time, the candidate is educated but is surrounded by toughies who frighten voters. So, it’s an image problem of a different kind.” 

The BJP’s greatest asset was Gujarat’s Opposition. Kana Bantwa, a group editor of Aajkaal, a Rajkot daily, remarked: “The Congress is like an ajgar, sleeping with its mouth open so that it can prey upon a passerby. It’s working at its own pace.” A comment that wasn’t wide of the mark because Jayant Trivedi, a Congress veteran now assisting the party’s Rajkot East candidate, Indranil Rajguru, conceded: “Our organisation is the weakest right now; our workers’ morale is low. The AICC is not serious about Gujarat. Mallikarjun Kharge (Congress president) hasn’t even stepped inside the state. If our candidates win, victory will be theirs and not the party’s.”

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) began with a bang, positioning itself as a serious third player. “It seemed so until 15 days ago. 

But the AAP is stagnating. 

There are no rallies, no statements on Gujarat, and no leader is coming. The stagnancy might be because of the Delhi civic polls,” said Bantwa.  Dinesh Vasavi, an AAP joint secretary managing the campaign of Rahul Bhuva, the Rajot East candidate, disagreed. “People are not coming out because they’re scared of the BJP. We’ve left it to God. We can’t do anything about the bahubalis.”