 "Nawaz Sharif to attend Modi's swearing-in ceremony")
With Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif accepting Prime Minister-elect Narendra Modi’s invitation to attend his swearing-in ceremony on Monday, expectations are running high that this could herald the beginning of a new chapter in relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
On Monday, Sharif will be accompanied by Sartaj Aziz, his advisor on national security & foreign affairs, besides Pakistan Foreign Secretary Aizaz Ahmed Chaudhry and the PM’s special assistant on foreign affairs Tariq Fatemi, the Pakistan High Commission said here in a statement on Saturday. The delegation is expected to arrive a few hours before the swearing-in ceremony but all eyes will be on the bilateral meeting scheduled for Tuesday morning at Hyderabad House.
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Modi, on the other hand, will be accompanied by the external affairs minister (his or her first diplomatic engagement after being appointed on Monday) and Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh.
Modi is to meet leaders from all Saarc (South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation) nations for about 20-30 minutes. According to the protocol, he will first meet the Presidents of these countries and then the prime ministers.
Reliable sources told Business Standard Modi and Sharif might take up some of the key issues pertaining to the Kashmir dispute, cross-border terrorism and setting up stable investment and trading ties.
The most important issue both sides will ponder upon, however, would be the road map after 2014, when international troops start pulling out from Afghanistan. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had categorically said in its manifesto it would have zero tolerance for terrorism.
A diplomatic source said: “The meeting will be seen as an opportunity to create a good environment, good starting point and making progress in the peace dialogue. This will be a good occasion to pick up from where the things were left and proceed thereon. So, obviously hopes are high.”
Sharif will also call on President Pranab Mukherjee on Tuesday. According to sources, others accompanying Sharif, such as Aziz and Fatemi, might hold separate meetings with some of the key BJP leaders like Rajnath Singh, Arun Jaitley and Ravi Shankar Prasad.
“The invitation to all Saarc leaders for the ceremony is to showcase the Indian democracy and its strength to the world at large. It is a democracy event. It should not be viewed through the prism of bilateral issues between countries,” Jaitley said in a post on social networking website Facebook.
Many, however, point to a dramatic shift in BJP’s stance towards Pakistan. During his election campaign, Modi had accused the outgoing United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government of being soft and shaky in its dealings with that country. He had promised he would not allow Pakistan to get away with such acts as beheading Indian soldiers and gone on to say there could be no talk with Pakistan as long as bombs blasted and guns blazed.
Some observers acknowledge Modi’s swift move in requesting the external affairs ministry to invite leaders of Saarc countries and Mauritius for the swearing-in ceremony as “statesman-like”.
BJP’s member of the Rajya Sabha Tarun Vijay called Modi’s invitation to Sharif a “bold move”. He said the effort should be to resolve differences through “dialogue and engagement, not war and conflict”. He maintained BJP’s approach was different from the Congress’.
“The Congress party indulged in bilateral talks when Pakistan was sending mutilated bodies of our soldiers. We (BJP) are simply observing a good neighbourly behaviour in creating an atmosphere for meaningful dialogue,” he said.
Vijay added BJP was fully aware that Taliban might move towards Kashmir after the US’ withdrawal from Afghanistan. “There are certain power centres in Pakistan that would support them. It would be the timing and resolve of a ‘Modi-fied’ India that would defeat such elements. We, unlike UPA, won’t depend on any other country to defend our borders.”
The larger Sangh Parivar, particularly the Vishva Hindu Parishad (VHP), is not entirely pleased. But it has kept muted its aversion to a BJP prime minister inviting a Pakistani PM to the swearing in of his government.
The more right wing elements of the Sangh Parivar have fallen in line after the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh’s (RSS’) “blessing” to the proposal. RSS defended the invite to Pakistan and likened it to the Hindu culture of inviting a neighbour, however bad mutual relations might be, to a wedding.
Echoing similar views, VHP chief Ashok Singhal said here on Saturday that Pakistan had been invited because of the fact that it was India’s neighbour.
BJP, which is aware the bilateral talks could touch a raw nerve in its core constituency, has taken to insisting that Modi’s talks with Sharif and others will be more in the spirit of familiarisation than something with a substantive diplomatic agenda.
There is also an understanding within BJP that the new government might face tough challenges on the Kashmir front. The assessment emerging from Modi’s meetings with Home Secretary Anil Biswas and others like former director of Intelligence Bureau, Ajit Kumar Doval, is that the withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan would have a bearing on Kashmir. India’s security apparatus believes infiltration into Kashmir might increase in coming months.
The US needs both India and Pakistan to keep temperature down at the border so that Islamabad can station more of its troops on the Afghan-Pakistan border and help the Americans.
According to sources, that Afghan President Hamid Karzai has already spoken to Modi twice is an indication of how crucial the next few months are going to be for Sharif, Modi and Karzai himself. The Afghan President had first called to congratulate Modi after his election win and then following an attack on the Indian Consulate in Herat.
The Congress party, meanwhile, reacted to the development quite cautiously. After Sharif’s attendance was confirmed, the party hoped issues like that of Hafiz Saeed would be raised during the meeting.
“They (BJP) have periodically raised the issue of the return of Dawood Ibrahim, who allegedly is being sheltered by the establishment in Pakistan. So, we hope BJP remains true to the position it has taken over the past 10 years and raises these issues with the Pakistan prime minister when he comes to India,” said Congress spokesperson Manish Tewari.
Similarly, Shashi Tharoor advised BJP and Modi “abundant caution”. “If it is to be limited to a photo-op, we have no trouble with that. But there cannot be a substantive departure from the national consensus that Pakistan needs to bring the perpetrators of the 26/11 terror attacks to book and dismantle the terror infrastructure on its soil. As far as we know, there has been no progress on these counts. So, there is a red line that cannot be crossed,” he said.
Tharoor added it was entirely Modi’s prerogative to decide whom he wanted to invite “but we do not need to remind Mr Modi of what he had said of talks being drowned in the sound of gunfire and, of course, BJP’s stand that there can’t be terror and talks at the same time.”
Significantly, Hafiz Saeed tweeted: “Meanwhile, instead of appeasing India, Nawaz Sharif should represent the nation’s aspiration by reviewing his decision to visit Modi’s oath-taking ceremony.”
UPA’s alliance partner National Conference welcomed Sharif’s visit. Jammu & Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah tweeted: “Very glad to hear Pak PM has accepted invite, shows that he can prevail over forces inimical to good relations with India [sic],” he said. Following that up with another tweet, he observed: “…the only photo-op that will matter now will be the Modi-Sharif handshake.”
BREAKTHROUGH?
* The entourage: Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif to be accompanied by Sartaj Aziz, his advisor on national security & foreign affairs, Foreign Secretary Aizaz Ahmed Chaudhry and Sharif’s special assistant on foreign affairs Tariq Fatemi
* Team Modi: PM-elect Narendra Modi to be accompanied by the external affairs minister (to be appointed on Monday) and Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh
* Itinerary: Sharif is to arrive on Monday morning, a few hours before the swearing-in ceremony; bilateral talks are to take place on Tuesday; the Pak PM leaves for Islamabad the same day
* The agenda: The meeting is seen as a getting-to-know exercise but issues concerning Kashmir, cross-border terrorism, infiltration and trade & investment are also likely to be discussed
* Side meets: Sartaj Aziz might hold separate meetings with BJP leaders like Rajnath Singh, Arun Jaitley and Ravi Shankar Prasad
CLARIFICATION
An earlier version of this story had mentioned that this would be Nawaz Sharif's first official visit to India, which is incorrect. This is the corrected version. We regret the error.