India's relations with China heading in a new direction?

One of the first actions taken by India’s Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale soon after his appointment was to work the phone and tell the government-funded think tank Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis (IDSA) to call off a conference on “India and China in Asia: Making of a New Equilibrium” that would have discussed the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative, possibly in a tenor that could have riled China. The IDSA conference is a signature annual event of the institution, to which scholars, academics and military practitioners from all over the world are invited. Cancelling it at the 11th hour could not have been easy.

Other gestures followed swiftly. In March, the Cabinet Secretary put out a note to secretaries of ministries asking them to go easy on China. Tibetan leader in exile the Dalai Lama was requested to move a function to mark the Tibetan uprising from New Delhi to Dharamsala. The Dalai Lama also cancelled a scheduled visit to Imphal for the Indian Science Congress.

But the most important element of an apparent reset in Sino-Indian relations was the New Delhi visit of China’s trade minister, Zhong Shan in March. Addressing the 11th meeting of China-India Joint Group on Economic Relations, Trade, Science and Technology, the newly appointed minister (he was given this charge after the recent meeting of the Chinese Communist Party) offered several proposals to India. Among these were

1- China was ready to dovetail the Belt and Road Initiative with  "Make in India" and Digital India programmes.

2- An enthusiastic invitation to India to participate in the China International Import Expo (CIIE) to be held in November in Shanghai.

3- The offer of a trade facilitation joint working group and upgrading the joint working group on industrial parks to investment cooperation.

4- Strengthening communication in trade remedies. China is expected to hold the 4th meeting of the trade remedy cooperation mechanism as soon as possible and is considering specific measures to ‘properly’ settle trade disputes.

5- More cooperation between India and China on the development of human resources.

6- And most importantly, boosting multilateral and regional economic cooperation. At a time when the perception is that Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is dead in the water, China offered deeper cooperation in the multilateral trading system.

7- The issue of India’s huge trade deficit was also put on the table.

India has not compromised on fundamental issues. Indian Ambassador to China, Gautam Bambawale told a newspaper in an interview in Hong Kong that the Doklam stand-off occurred because China tried to change the status quo. This got an instant Chinese rebuttal: there is no question of changing the status quo because it belongs to us. 

Bambawale also urged China to work towards resolving the disputed border, adding that the two countries needed to talk. On reports of a new Indian approach to OBOR, an Indian Foreign Office spokesman reiterated that India’s problem was the violation of sovereignty that OBOR represented. The report of a parliamentary committee on external affairs says squarely that India should be concerned about China’s ‘chokehold’ in the region. The joint military exercise named Hand in Hand is still suspended.

But small windows seem to be opening. Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is to visit China later this month. Before that, all eyes will be on the India-China strategic economic dialogue to be held on April 13-14. And the main event will, of course, be Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to China for a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) at Qingdao in June.

Experts say the concessions are all on India’s part. But Nepal Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli came to New Delhi first. He is widely viewed as being pro-China, but there is no invitation from Beijing yet.