Jayalalithaa's split legacy leaves the field open in Tamil Nadu

Three distinct factions with a powerful Opposition, are waiting to pounce upon an opportunity

The crisis in Tamil Nadu’s ruling party, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), has escalated. Seven months after the death of J Jayalalithaa, its supremo and the state’s chief minister, the party has split into at least three factions. All within a year after it was re-elected to office.

With a national presidential election in the offing and a legislative assembly session beginning this week, political experts are speculating on what lies ahead.

Without Jayalalithaa’s commanding presence, the AIADMK first split in February. One faction was led by her loyal aide and three-time chief minister, O Panneerselvam(OPS), who’d formally succeeded her as head of government. After having resigned, he alleged he’d been forced to do so by Jaya’s successor as party chief (titled ‘general secretary’), head of her household while she was alive, V K Sasikala.

Sasikala and MLAs loyal to her had elected E K Palaniswami (EPS), a minister in the Jaya Cabinet, as CM. Right after this, Sasikala was convicted in a long-standing case involving charges of graft and accumulation of disproportionate assets — where Jaya was the prime accused — and given a prison term. Before going into prison, she appointed T T V Dinakaran, her nephew, deputy general secretary of the party. It was expected that Dinakaran would be Sasikala’s eyes and ears for the duration she was in prison and Palaniswami would take directions from him.

Dinakaran was, shortly after, booked and arrested on charges of trying to bribe an Election Commission of India official to get a favourable order on allotment of the official party symbol to his group. And, senior ministers joined Palaniswami in announcing they were distancing Dinakaran and the Sasikala family from party and government.

However, Dinakaran got bail and came out of jail on June 1. And, 32 MLAs visited him, making the contours of another split clear. This has created a new crisis for the Palaniswami government. Some senior ministers still say the Sasikala family and Dinakaran will be allowed no role in party or government. “Our stand continues to be the same, as in April,” said Finance Minister D Jayakumar, after internal discussions on June 5.

Responding to this, Dinakaran said: “No one has the power to expel me or Sasikala from the AIADMK.” Speaking to reporters after meeting his aunt for nearly 90 minutes, he asked how Jayakumar had got the authority to issue such a statement. Choosing his words, Dinakaran said he’d kept away from the party for six weeks, expecting that his absence would help the Panneerselvam and Palaniswami factions to unite. But, he said, they were not even ready to talk to each other.

The numbers

Palaniswami, still CM, has the deemed support of 90 MLAs. Panneerselvam has 12 and, as mentioned earlier, another 32 have met Dinakaran. This is in a 234-member legislative assembly where the Opposition parties number 97. M K Stalin, working president of the ruling party’s arch rival, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), has said they are ready to do their duty in the assembly.

The Panneerselvam faction’s relevance is now in question. His 12 MLAs had joined him in February and he has been unable to attract any more, despite the ongoing tussle between the others.

“Only the general secretary of the party can take action against me. I am very much in charge of party affairs,” says Dinakaran. He  says Sasikala had asked him to wait for 60 days. If the party is not united even after that, “We know what to do.” That was last Tuesday; the 60 days end on August 5.

With almost four years left in the current assembly’s life, none of the factions wants its dissolution, which is likely to follow if the government fell. Last week, Panneerselvam declared his faction would do nothing to displace Palaniswami. The Dinakaran faction is also expected to go slow on this front.

A re-alignment on the floor of the House obviates fresh elections. Given multiple symbol-related disputes, the application of the anti-defection law is a grey area

BJP factor

What the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its government at the Centre would do is being discussed. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had separately met Panneerselvam and Palaniswami more than once. And, both these factions have separately invited the PM to participate in the coming birth centenary event of AIADMK founder, M G Ramachandran, mentor of Jayalalithaa. Both sides are having separate events in December. Unwittingly or otherwise, they’re now engaged in a competition to woo the BJP.

In fact, Panneerselvam has issued a tweet on a possible alliance with the BJP for the coming civic polls. “We will take a decision once local body elections are announced,” was the statement from his Twitter handle. This was later removed, the faction saying it’d decide on a tie-up with ‘any party’ only after the local body poll dates were declared.

Dairy Development Minister K T Rajendra Balaji says, however, that the BJP is the option of the future. “What is wrong with supporting the BJP? You cannot keep saying they are not bothered about other castes or communities. They were the one who made a Muslim, Dr Abdul Kalam, the President of India,” he added.

The AIADMK’s unified support to the BJP is considered crucial to ensure a victory for the latter’s nominee in the presidential polls, scheduled on July 17. It has a 5.36 per cent vote share in the electoral college. And, both the EPS and OPS camps seem firmly with the BJP on this.

According to sources, the BJP has been pushing the two groups to merge and then get the Sasikala clan out of the party and government. Also needed to ensure a DMK-Congress combine does not exploit the situation.