Little chance for BJP to expand base in TN: Hugo Gorringe

Hugo Gorringe is a sociology lecturer at the University of Edinburgh. His new book, Panthers in Parliament: Dalits, Caste and Politics in South India, is published by OUP. In this interview to Aditi Phadnis, he explores the political map of Tamil Nadu after J Jayalalithaa.
 
J Jayalalithaa’s death has left an almost monarchical void in Tamil Nadu. How do you see politics developing in a state where chief ministers have virtually functioned as kings?
 
Research on Tamil politics points towards the persistence of organisational aspects of monarchical culture, seen in patronage relations that render people dependent on welfare and largesse distributed by revered leaders. Jayalalithaa exemplified this trend, and the personalisation of state power reached new levels under her time in office.

 

State benefits and services were branded as Amma products, and sat alongside Amma canteens, Amma water and Amma pharmacies, which all provided essential goods at cheap prices. This leader-centric style of politics means that successors have little public standing and recognition at first and must seek to benefit from their association with the former leader. In that sense the reference to monarchical rule makes sense. In other respects, however, the Tamil electorate has regularly rejected leaders who are tainted by scandal, seen as aloof or who are outbid by the manifestos of opponents. In the immediate term there is unlikely to be any change to the form of Tamil politics. V K Sasikala must needs continue Jayalalithaa’s policies since her close association with Amma is her main qualification for office, particularly given the dissension within party ranks. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), meanwhile, will seek to highlight her inexperience and present itself as better placed to deliver public goods and services.

 
The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) has posted some stunning electoral performances lately. As elsewhere, in Tamil Nadu too this seems to be the result of skilful caste alliances. Jayalalithaa was responsible for managing a Thevar-Gounder consolidation that led to O Panneerselvam being appointed her understudy followed by an equally smooth transition in the party to Sasikala. But now things are changing again. Will these castes stay with the AIADMK? If not, which way are they likely to go?
 
The AIADMK electoral successes were the result of a number of factors including Jayalalithaa’s popularity; manifesto promises and benefits appealing to many; the weakness of the Opposition (divided as a whole and by internal wrangling, and tainted by corruption); and the ability to stitch together strong alliances. Assuming that Sasikala prevails and becomes CM, she will need to rely on Amma’s continuing popularity leading to a sympathy wave, and will need to put together an attractive and popular manifesto if she is to succeed. This is essential for the AIADMK since the last election suggested that the DMK is starting to recover and will put up a strong fight.

 
The caste equation is the most interesting one to follow, and the issue that sets Sasikala (or indeed, Panneerselvam) most apart from her friend and mentor. Unlike Jayalalithaa, Sasikala and OPS both hail from the dominant (albeit backward) Thevar caste cluster and Sasikala has been accused by many of favouring her caste fellows in appointments and candidate selection. She will need to work extra hard to keep the coalition of castes on board. Already, serious cracks are appearing in the AIADMK’s united front, with the criticisms voiced by Panneerselvam and other party leaders. Irrespective of which candidate gains the CM post, this will be the first time that a Dravidian party is being led by a member of a dominant caste and so it will be fascinating to chart the response from the electorate.

 
Dalits in Tamil Nadu are scattered over parties and their political consciousness is high. How have Dalits in the state behaved electorally and what should we expect now?
 
One of the key tests of the new AIADMK leadership will be the extent to which it is able to retain Dalit votes. The AIADMK has long benefited from MGR’s legacy in terms of its ability to attract a sizeable Dalit vote. MGR’s on-screen persona as a Robin Hood-type hero and his introduction of the populist midday meal scheme has cemented him in the hearts and minds of many followers. Now, though, Dalit voters are being asked to endorse a leader, who has not made a name through cinema and is a member of what is perceived to be a cluster of oppressor castes. Much of the caste violence in Tamil Nadu has occurred between Thevars and the upwardly mobile Pallars or Devendrakula Vellallars. Jayalalithaa was able to forge alliances with Pallar leaders such as Krishnasamy, but it is doubtful that they will be so receptive to her successor. Interestingly, Thirumavalavan, the leader of the largest Dalit-led party in the state — the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi — has welcomed Sasikala’s appointment. Both major Dalit parties lost all their seats in the last two elections, and so pragmatism may prevail over ideology. The AIADMK may find that it needs to include Dalit politicians in its alliances in order to retain support from the community and offset fears of Thevar domination.

 
If the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) were to seek to expand a base and an organisation in a state where it has almost nothing, where should it begin?
 
The BJP has been making slow but steady inroads in the state over the past decade, but realistically it stands little chance of significantly expanding its base here. Jayalaithaa may have been a Brahmin herself, but she retained the Dravidian emphasis of Tamil politics. In the most recent state and national elections, the AIADMK rejected the overtures of the BJP and delivered stunning electoral victories without the support of national parties. The party has sought to cultivate the support of those Pallars, who reject their inferior status and project themselves as descended from kings, and have also sought to cobble together an alliance of intermediate castes, but neither strategy has paid dividends.

 
The BJP’s best hope is that Sasikala — who has never contested an election, let alone led a campaign — may be persuaded to ally with them in future polls. If OPS prevails, then the AIADMK will be so riven by factional conflict that they will be anxious to secure allies, too. The BJP has certainly done its utmost to leave doors open to such an alliance by paying fulsome tribute to Jayalalithaa,but the Jallikattu protests highlighted how the BJP needs to pander to Tamil cultural sensitivities to avoid the charge that it is a Hindi belt party.
 

Are we seeing the end of regional politics and the start of national politics in Tamil Nadu?
 
One of Jayalalithaa’s main legacies is the retrenchment of regional and Dravidian rule in the state. The past two elections when the AIADMK stood alone and defied the odds, testify to the continued strength and significance of regional politics. If the Congress has lost support due to the suffering of Tamils in Sri Lanka, the BJP has failed to escape its portrayal as a northern party. Modi’s promotion of Hindi does not play well in a Tamil context.
 
Whilst the focus of Dravidian politics may have shifted from social justice to patronage, there is a commitment to universal welfare schemes and to Tamil issues (water sharing between states, the conflict in Sri Lanka, the status of the Tamil language, cultural issues like jallikattu) that are unlikely to be abandoned given the intensely competitive party system in the state. The immediate beneficiary of turmoil in the AIADMK is likely to be the DMK rather than any national party.