Lokpal Bill: who'll gain in 2014 Lok Sabha polls?

Political parties believe that the Bill will numb AAP's crusade to demonise the political class

The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance faces a tough battle to stay in power in general elections due in early 2014 and its new zeal for the Lokpal Bill is seen by many political observers as an attempt to make up lost ground with electorates.  After its drubbing in four state Assembly polls, the ruling party hopes to use the Bill’s passage to come back to political centrestage again. It also hopes with the endorsement of veteran social activist Anna Hazare it can refurbish the image of Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi that had taken a severe beating after the latest poll debacle.

 

Political commentators observed that the presence of senior ministers including Finance Minister P Chidambaram and Law Minister Kapil Sibal on the same dais with Gandhi in a rare press meet last week was not just to demonstrate that the party and the government were on the same page but also to gain political mileage of an issue that has been seen to be one of the main causes of the party's electoral rout, particularly in Delhi. A series of major corruption scandals has damaged the UPA government's reputation in recent years.

 

"The rapid passing of the Lokpal Bill at the fag end of winter session of Parliament will certainly help Congress and BJP in the run up to the Lok Sabha elections. It is likely to mute criticism to a certain extent of the government’s failures in getting the Bill through Parliament and will help to soothe public anger about corruption. Despite the UPA-II cleared several social sector schemes such as food security, land acquisition to attract voters, the stunning performance of Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi polls forced the ruling party to send a strong message to the urban vote bank which had of late been shifting from the Grand Old Party,” observes Asha Sarangi, associate professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi.

 

As Congress lawmakers rallied to give the Amethi MP credit for the Lokpal Bill’s passage, Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha Sushma Swaraj said, “The people of this country and the old man (Anna Hazare) who has undertaken fast several times deserve credit.” Leader of opposition in the Rajya Sabha Arun Jaitley said that the bill was ‘the result of the government realising which way the wind was blowing on corruption”. The political drive behind the bill was made clearer by the Bharatiya Janata Party’s support as well, for all parties are now bent on appearing morally and politically correct.

 

“At this juncture Rahul Gandhi needs to create new spaces to act legitimacy as the Congress leadership appears to project him as its prime ministerial candidate. At present, it is hard to predict how much political mileage Gandhi would extract out of it as it can also be seen as the Congress leader’s game changer strategy to hijack social activist Anna Hazare’s agenda before the 2014 battle,” said Sarangi.  

 

There is one school of thought that argues that it is too late for the Congress party to change people's perception. The charges of scandals against party members have tarnished the image of the Congress. The party introduced a lot of people-friendly schemes like the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan, Right to Information Act and so on. In spite of all these, it could not impress the electorate of late. Approximately, 100 days are left for the next general elections. It will be an uphill task for the party to start afresh. India is ranked 94th in a list of 177 countries on Transparency International's 2013 global corruption index, rated worse than China, South Africa and Brazil.

 

"The Lokpal Bill won’t be an issue in 2014 polls. As far as the AAP is concerned, it is not at all a serious contender across the country at present. After the passage of the Bill, the Hazare factor has also been marginalised to an extent as the youth would surely ask: what next? Also, Rahul Gandhi missed the bus in 2011 when Hazare led a mass movement protesting at a slew of mega scams involving politicians, businessmen and bureaucrats. Later Hazare’s protégé Kejriwal grabbed the opportunity and launched a political party promising an honest and accountable governance. These days voters are mature enough and they do understand that it was Gandhi’s political gimmick to sent letters to the Gandhian for his support, argues A K Verma, professor at Kanpur Christ Church College.

 

Mainstream political parties believe that the Bill would at least numb Kejriwal’s crusade to demonise the political class. 

 

"The forthcoming Lok Sabha elections would primarily be fought on bread-and-butter issues like high price of basic food items. Of all these issues, the most interesting would be Rahul Gandhi-versus-Narendra Modi personality clash. Modi has already framed Gandhi as his political opponent. It is a rare election gathering when the BJP’s PM-in waiting does not make a jibe or two at Gandhi. Modi has built an image of an incorruptible and efficient leader. However, there is also no certainty that Gandhi will become Congress party's nominee for the top post,” said Verma. 

 

Hopefully, corruption and clean governance are likely to be top campaign issues in 2014.