Ministry reshuffle likely after presidential election

Modi govt is preparing for three months of political manoeuvring

The Narendra Modi government is preparing for three months of political manoeuvring. This includes getting its nominees elected to the posts of President and Vice-President of India. And, subsequently, the prime minister effecting a reshuffle of the Union council of ministers.

Reshuffle and expansion of the council of ministers has become necessary, feels top leadership in the government and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), as key portfolio minders, particularly those dealing with social sectors, need to pull weight for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Economic ministries are seen to have done well so far.

There is also a need to fill vacancies, including the one at Paryavaran Bhavan, the headquarters of the ministry of environment, forests and climate change, after the death of Anil Madhav Dave.

This could see performing ministers from BJP-ruled state governments and party general secretaries inducted. A couple of general secretaries, who have helped the party score recent electoral wins and consolidated the organisation in some of its weaker areas in the Northeast and south, could be accommodated. 

Sources said the reshuffle was likely only after the new President takes oath of office by July 25. With biennial elections to the Rajya Sabha due by early 2018 and the BJP placed to win several seats, party leaders and state ministers can be brought into the Union council of ministers by September and be elected to Parliament within six months.

However, top party sources indicated it was unlikely any of the BJP chief ministers would be brought to the Centre. Other considerations would be the coming legislative assembly polls to Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka.

It is possible that Karnataka gets more representation in the council of ministers, just as Bihar did a year before the Assembly polls in that state in November 2015. Similarly, several MPs from Uttar Pradesh were inducted into the ministry in July 2016, in view of the assembly polls there in early 2017. Elections are due in Karnataka in May 2018, while Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh go to polls at the end of this year.

The reshuffle would also seek to fill vacancies, promote performing ministers who currently have independent charges of their portfolios and to find a successor to Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises Minister Kalraj Mishra, who turns 76 in July. An unwritten rule of the Modi-led ministry has been to include only those below 75 years of age. As for ministers with dual charge, Science and Technology Minister Harsh Vardhan has dual charge of ministry of environment, forests and climate change after the passing away of Dave. Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh has been entrusted with the additional charge of the ministry of food and consumer affairs as Ram Vilas Paswan is on medical leave. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley is also handling the defence ministry after Manohar Parrikar returned to Goa as chief minister.

It remains to be seen if the PM will await 71-year-old Paswan’s return or appoint someone in his place. There, however, seems no move afoot to appoint a defence minister.

Some performers are likely to be promoted to Cabinet rank. The performance of Power and Coal Minister Piyush Goyal and Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan has come for praise from the PM and BJP chief Amit Shah, for their contribution to the BJP’s emphatic electoral win in Uttar Pradesh. Pradhan and Goyal are currently Ministers of State with independent charge. Some others are Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, Telecom Minister Manoj Sinha and Minority Affairs Minister Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi.

Currently, the union council of ministers has 74 members, including the PM. The first Cabinet expansion and reshuffle took place on 9 November 2014 and the second on 5 July 2016. According to Article 72 of the Constitution, the total number of Ministers, including the PM, in the council shall not exceed 15 per cent of the number of members of the House of the People. This is applicable to both the Centre and states. Therefore, the maximum numbers of ministers that the Cabinet can contain is 82.