Modi for PM: Why is BJP resisting a big bang announcement?

Will making the Hindutva poster boy the PM candidate polarise the polity at this juncture?

The 'naysayers' (LK Advani and Sushma Swaraj) in the Bharatiya Janata Party are of the view that Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi’s formal anointment as the Prime Ministerial candidate for the 2014 elections would blunt the party's attack against the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government for charges of misgovernance and corruption.

At present, the saffron party wants to tread warily in the charged atmosphere created by alleged fake encounter killings (read DG Vanzara resignation letter) as any impulsive decision at this stage will push the Muslims into the Congress’s arms without consolidating the Hindus.
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Modi’s prime ministerial ambition remarks come in the midst of a call for a Gujarat bandh on Friday by the Congress that has been baying for his blood after the stinging resignation letter of suspended top cop Vanzara as well as a sting operation allegedly involving two BJP MPs trying to influence the probe in the Tulsiram Prajapati fake encounter case.

 

Modi's elevation is also stuck because senior BJP leaders say he must leave Gujarat and come to Delhi to enable full and requisite exposure. "Khadaun ka raj nahi chalega (we cannot accept proxy rule)," sources told Business Standard.
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Also, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has sent enough signals to Muslims that they are safe under him in Madhya Pradesh. The party’s strategy is to further delay the announcement of Modi as the party's PM candidate till the assembly elections to Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan are over.

 

Detractors of Modi feel he would take the credit for the BJP’s victory in the state elections if he is declared the candidate for Prime Minister now.

 

Last month, Advani’s political aide Sudheendra Kulkarni had tweeted that Modi’s daring the Prime Minister for a public debate on Independence Day was, “simply put IMMATURE”.

 

There is one school of thought that argues that announcing Modi as the PM candidate before the assembly polls may not be a viable idea as the party wants to insulate Modi from criticism in the event of the results of the assembly elections going against the BJP.

 

Earlier, the party distanced itself from two posters that came up depicting only Gujarat CM Modi with the slogan "new thinking, new hope" and said these hoardings have not been authorised by the party.

 

The debate about the 'big bang' announcement timing has been gathering momentum ever since Janata Dal (United) leader and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar walked out of the National Democratic Alliance following Modi’s appointment as the BJP’s poll panel chief. 

 

In fact, the party loyalists are mounting pressure on the leadership to announce Modi’s candidature as they feel there is no compulsion to delay the declaration, now that the JD (U) cannot come back to the NDA fold.

 

Addressing a party conclave last week, Leader of Opposition in the Rajya Sabha Arun Jaitley said: “The moment we declare our prime ministerial candidate the situation will turn in our favour…. Parliamentary elections at times also become (like) presidential elections, especially when the leader enjoys overwhelming popularity.”

 

The BJP is also waiting for the Congress to take a final stand on its prime ministerial candidate.

 

While Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi is believed to be the party’s undisputed PM-in-waiting, the leadership has deliberately kept up the suspense on this issue in order to confuse the opposition camp.

 

Despite the “will-they-won’t they” riddle, the Hindutva poster boy is embarking on a national campaign, starting with a meeting in Jaipur on September 10th, in Rewari in Haryana on the 15th and in Tiruchi in Tamil Nadu on the 26th.

 

The stigma that clung to him in the aftermath of the 2002 riots has not faded. However, his stature has grown steadily since then and he has built an image for turning Gujarat into one of India's best-governed and most affluent states.

 

The BJP has lost the last two general elections and has yet to transform its fortunes, but Modi is increasingly seen as the leader who could finally catapult the saffron party to power.