Modi slips into Lalu's shoes with M-Y formula in mind

His plank: Gujarati Muslims are better off economically than in other states; and Lord Krishna's descendants can bank on him now that their leader Lalu has been put away

Probably, the new NaMo mantra is: let bygones be bygones. Time was when during his Sadbhavna fast in September 2011, a Muslim cleric had walked up to him and offered him a skullcap but Narendra Modi had politely declined to wear it. In July this year, the Gujarat Chief Minister had accused the Congress of resorting to its time-tested tactic of donning a ‘secular burqa’ when beset by a crisis. 

 

On Sunday, in a clear departure from the Hindutva politics he has advocated, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) prime ministerial candidate said Hindus and Muslims both needed to be lifted out of poverty. "Do the Hindus want to fight poverty or Muslims?" he thundered, his question directed at the Hindu section of the audience. He quickly added: "Do the Muslims want to fight poverty or Hindus?" The BJP’s star campaigner went on to add that how some of the most visible economic development in Gujarat took place in areas where Muslims live in large numbers.

 

The Hunkar  (or roar) rally may prove to be extremely crucial in making or unmaking Modi’s dream to ride on to the most important office in the country. He left no stone unturned to make ample display of his effort to rise above his established image of a rabid Hindutva torchbearer. In his first formal pitch for Muslim votes, Modi cited the progress of Muslims in Gujarat as a proof of his commitment to work for the welfare of all sections. More Muslims from Gujarat perform Haj (sacred pilgrimage to Mecca, Saudi Arabia) than from Bihar because their economic uplift enables them to do so, the Gujarat CM said while driving home the point that the minority community members are better off in the state under his charge.

 

Sunday's Hunkar rally was intended as a show of strength in the state where the ruling Janata Dal (United) broke off a 17-year alliance with the BJP after it picked Modi as its candidate to lead the party. Opinion polls predict that the saffron party has picked up support since elevating Modi as its candidate for prime minister last month, but would need allies to form a government at the Centre.

Reports suggest that a section of Muslims did vote for the BJP during the last Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. But the credit for that goes to its then ally, the JD (U), particularly Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Following the break-up of the alliance in June, the party realises the importance of having a forceful Muslim population voting for it.
 

As Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Lalu Prasad is in jail after being denied bail in the 17-year-old fodder scam case and the party is almost pushed out of the equation, what would have been a three-cornered contest is likely to boil down to a direct face-off between BJP and JD (U). By standing in the way of Modi, regarded as the present day Hindutva icon, Kumar has exactly done what the RJD boss had done to Lal Advani in the 1990s. Like Prasad, Kumar believes Muslims constituting approximately 16% of the state’s electorate to reward him for his opposition to Modi.

 

A large section of state Congress leaders has a soft corner for Prasad. This section favours an alliance with the RJD because the party still commands a sizeable chunk of the Muslim votes. JD (U) strategists are wary that a Congress-RJD and Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party combination would be preferred by the sizeable Muslim voters in north Bihar — Darbhanga, Madhubani, Katihar, Motihari, Bettiah, Purnea and Kishanganj. This could spell trouble for the party in 2014. 

 

Modi also opened arms to Yadavs, the core constituency of the jailed RJD boss. The Hindutva poster boy said: “The descendants of Krishna’s Yaduvansh should not worry, I am here to take care of them. Krishna had gone to Dwarka from Mathura; I have come from Dwarka to take care of you, have no worries.”  Yadavs account for almost 12% of Bihar’s population and play a decisive role in state politics.

 

With Prasad out of the electoral scene at present and the Yadav community reluctant to support Kumar — a Kurmi leader —  the saffron party is anticipating that Yadavs could vote for the party where RJD is not seen in a winning position. There is one school of thought that argues that the community has been without power for close to a decade now, and they know they are not going to get it under Kumar. Should the BJP be able to display winnability,  some of them, especially the affluent ones, will be tempted to switch loyalty.

 

Prasad's attempt to install son Tejaswi as a leader has not worked yet nor has it gone down well with his colleagues. His wife Rabri Devi may not be able to evoke the same sentiment that he does. 
 

After the split, state BJP leaders began projecting Modi as a face of the backward classes because he an OBC from the Hindu Ghanchi community, which is the Gujarat equivalent of the Teli (oil presser) caste of northern India. In Modi’s OBC pedigree, the Bihar discovered a weapon to challenge Nitish’s clout with the backward classes in the state. 

 

Analysts say Modi arouses strong emotions in the nation of 1.2 billion people. To followers,  he exudes confidence that things can be turned around with sushasan (good governance). To rivals, his overture to the minority community is seen as less about inclusiveness and more designed to break down the resistance of secular forces in the larger national arena.