MP by-polls: BJP sails through, but challenges remain going forward

While Scindia's influence is under threat, Chouhan has the task to accommodate rivals in the Cabinet

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) consolidated its position in Madhya Pradesh by winning 19 of the 28 Assembly seats for which byelections were held recently. The BJP had 107 MLAs in the Assembly and needed only nine more seats to secure a majority in the 230-member House.
 

The results were not unexpected as there was no potent threat to the BJP, but the polls still held significance for Jyotiraditya Scindia, who crossed over to BJP along with his supporters, ensuring the Congress government’s fall and paving the way for the BJP to return to power.
 

Scindia’s reputation was at stake and he understood this well and that was the reason he threw himself wholeheartedly into the by-elections, campaigning in the Gwalior-Chambal region.
 

Scindia’s influence
 

Scindia was heard telling voters that he himself was contesting in the election. Despite his efforts, though, six of his 16 supporters lost, three of them were former ministers. The six former MLAs are Imarti Devi, Girraj Dandautia, Munnalal Goyal, Randeep Jatav, Jaswant Jatav, and Raghuraj Singh Kansana (all from the Gwalior-Chambal region). In another seat, Bhander, the BJP candidate Rekha Saronia managed to defeat Congress’s Congress leader Phool Singh Baraiya by a margin of just 161 votes.
 

It became clear from the results that Scindia did not have as much influence in the Chambal region as was believed or as the BJP had expected. In Morena, considered his stronghold, as well as that of Union Minister Narendra Singh Tomar, the BJP was defeated in three of four seats.
 

Although Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan praised Scindia for settling well into the BJP, the facts say otherwise. A BJP insider said, “When campaigning for by-elections began, Scindia was very much restricted in the Gwalior-Chambal belt. Perhaps the fear of the gaddar (traitor) sobriquet had forced the party to stop Scindia from campaigning in all the seats.”
 

BJP spokesperson Pankaj Chaturvedi had a different view. “Scindia is a leader of great stature. One should not judge his political abilities on the basis of mere bypoll results. He has been in politics for two decades and has pan-India popularity. As far as his political career is concerned, he is not power hungry. He is looking to serve the common people. He will readily play whatever role the BJP leadership decides for him,” Chaturvedi said.
 

He said the Congress’ vote share in the Gwalior-Chambal region shrank significantly. “It does not matter how many seats we won or lost. BJP performed far better than previous occasions and that’s what matters,” he said.
 

Senior journalist and political analyst Sandeep Pauranik said after the bypoll results, the Scindia group’s pressure on the government would ease.
 

“Six member of the Scindia camp were defeated and six out of nine candidates considered close to Chouhan won their respective seats. This will help him ease Scindia’s pressure in cabinet.”
 

Shivraj reemerges
 

The by-election results also helped Chouhan in more ways than one. For example, he secured a majority in the Assembly, most of his candidates won their seats, and he is now in a position to induct ministers of his choice. Simultaneously, Chouhan will have to confront a new kind of pressure now as the Cabinet will be restructured after the defeat of four ministers. As a result, there will be intense competition from those BJP leaders who were silent so far because of the assurance that they would be rehabilitated after the by-elections.
 

“The situation is tricky. While allotting key portfolios, Chouhan may have to strike a balance between senior BJP leaders and Scindia loyalists,” said Pauranik. In July, when Chouhan expanded his Cabinet, Scindia loyalists got key portfolios like water resources, revenue, and transport. Scindia’s stature will also be gauged by the portfolios allocated to his supporters in the Cabinet.
 

After the by-elections results, major changes can also be seen in the state’s Congress unit. In December 2018, the party had come to power, but was not free of factionalism. Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh’s strained relations with Scindia were considered to be the prime reason for the fall of the government. In the changed situation, both Nath and Singh could be moved out of state politics.
 

As one Congress leader says, “The high command had given Kamal Nath a completely free hand in this crucial byelection to contest on his own, but he failed to deliver. The work done by the BJP at the grassroots level was missing in the Congress and became an important reason for the defeat”.