New winning formula: More money power, marginally less muscle power

In the high stakes game of elections, political parties have hit upon a new winning formula. While the reliance on muscle power seems to have eased somewhat, the influence of money power has gone up several notches.

Data reviewed by Business Standard of eight states that have gone to polls since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections show that in all of them political parties have nominated a significantly large number of high net worth candidates compared with the last round of assembly elections.

However, in four of these eight states, parties have fielded fewer candidates with criminal records. Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal are the four states where both the incidence of money and muscle power have gone up compared to the previous assembly elections in these states.

The change in approach is perhaps a result of the realisation that the winnability of crorepati candidates is many times more than the winnability of candidates with criminal antecedents.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, for instance, the probability of crorepati candidate winning the polls was 10 times more than that of candidates with assets of less than Rs 1 crore. However, the winnability of tainted candidates was 2.6 times more than that of candidates with a clean record, according to calculations based on Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) data.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, chances of winning of candidates with criminal records stood at 13 per cent as opposed to a mere five per cent for clean candidates. A crorepati candidate's chances of winning, on the other hand, stood at 20 per cent compared with only two per cent for candidates with assets of less than Rs 1 crore, according to ADR data.

"The rise in 'money power' is due to several factors: Fierce electoral competition, the increasing size of constituencies, inflated voter expectations of handouts, and the growing complexity of elections. Expenditure on media and communications, for instance, is a key component now of election budgets," said Milan Vaishnav, senior associate, South Asia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He has written several scholarly papers on the subject.

"I do not necessarily agree with the notion that muscle power is on the decline. If you look at the five states currently going to polls, in three of five states the share of candidates facing criminal cases has increased. In all five states, the percentage of candidates facing serious cases has gone up. Therefore, there is no clear evidence that alleged criminality is going down. Indeed, it might be rising," he said.

However, ADR data for eight major states that have gone to the polls since 2014 show that in Haryana, Bihar, Assam and Kerala, parties fielded fewer candidates with criminal antecedents. In case of Kerala, the fall has been quite steep; from 39 per cent of all candidates with criminal records in 2011 to 28 per cent of such candidates in 2016. In case of other states, the fall has been marginal. In Bihar's case, the fall has been from 32 per cent in 2010 to 30 per cent in 2015.

"I don't consider marginal fall, if at all, to be of any significance. Ideally, it should be zero," said Jagdeep Chhokar, one of the founders of ADR.

Data on personal assets of candidates compiled by ADR, on the other hand, show there has been a marked preference for high net worth individuals in elections in all the eight states. The rise has been quite steep in Maharashtra, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. The most modest rise was seen in Kerala.

Experts say what is worrying is the rising influence of money even in relatively less developed states. In the 2010 assembly elections in Bihar, there were only nine per cent candidates with assets in excess of Rs 1 crore. Five years later, the state had 25 per cent such candidates.

In the neighbouring Jharkhand too, the number of crorepati candidates increased nearly three times between the two elections, according to ADR data. In relatively prosperous states like Haryana Tamil Nadu, nearly 40 per cent of all candidates now had assets in excess of Rs 1 crore.

What is more, even in West Bengal, which was seen to be immune to the rising influence of money politics thus far, the number of candidates with assets of more than Rs 1 crore has increased three times this time compared with the last elections.

Experts say that other than edging out poor candidates from the electoral race, the rising influence of money power in politics has other consequences. In a situation where money is becoming a very important criterion for political selection, Vaishnav said, "it seems reasonable to expect that politicians are going to shape policy in ways that might benefit their funders or financial interests."

Chhokar, on the other hand, is of the view that the rising influence of money power in politics is indicative of the growing clout of corporates in the political process.