Opinion poll predicts BJP may not get majority in Jharkhand, J&K

The BJP is likely to create history in the 87-member Jammu & Kashmir Assembly by notching its highest ever tally of seats

The India TV–C Voter and News X–C-Voter opinion polls released on Tuesday have forecast that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would form a government in Delhi, fall short of the majority mark in Jharkhand and might emerge as the second largest party in Jammu and Kashmir.

The C Voter poll for Delhi forecasts 37 seats for BJP, 26 for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), six for the Congress and one for others. The halfway mark in the 70-member Delhi Assembly is 35. It predicted the BJP to get 44 per cent vote share, AAP 26 per cent, Congress 11 per cent and others six per cent. The poll was based on answers from 2,447 respondents and was conducted in the first week of November. The ABP News-Nielsen opinion poll, whose findings were released on Monday, predicted a comfortable victory for the BJP in Delhi with 46-seats followed by 18 for AAP and five for Congress. The party position after the December 2013 elections was 32 seats for BJP along with ally Shiromani Akali Dal’s solitary seat, 28 for AAP, eight to Congress and two to others.

The India TV–C Voter poll predicted 29 to 35 seats for the BJP in Jharkhand’s 81-member Assembly, six to 12-seats short of the halfway mark of 41 seats. The BJP would emerge as the single largest party followed by Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) with 17 to 23 seats, Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) with 6 to 12 seats, Congress with 7 to 13 seats and others with 7 to 13 seats. It predicted a vote share of 32 per cent for BJP, 19 per cent for JMM, 12 per cent for JVM, 13 per cent for Congress and 24 per cent for others. The party position in 2009 Assembly polls in Jharkhand was as follows – JMM 18, BJP 18, Congress 14, JVM 11 and others 20.

The BJP is likely to create history in the 87-member Jammu & Kashmir Assembly by notching its highest ever tally of seats. The poll has predicted 27 to 33 seats for Mehbooba Mufti-led People’s Democratic Party, 23 to 29 seats for BJP, 10 to 16 seats for Omar Abdullah-led National Conference, 6 to 12 seats for Congress and 6 to 12 seats for others.

The party position in the 2008 Assembly elections was as follows – PDP 21 seats, BJP 11, National Conference 28, Congress 17 and others 10. The findings are based on interviews of 4,322 people across J&K and Jharkhand.

Elections to the Delhi Assembly are yet to be announced. Voting for both J&K and Jharkhand is scheduled to be conducted in five phases starting November 25. Counting of votes is on December 23. Others include independents and smaller parties.