Regional parties to slow Modi Express in the heartland

There is a groundswell of support for Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi but caste and regional factors will play a more decisive role in the coming polls

The Amritsar-Howrah Express chugged off the platform at the Amritsar railway station at 6.10 pm, to traverse a distance of 2,000 km through the hearts of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. It carried mostly proletarian and middle-class passengers. Such people are expected to play a decisive role in the coming general elections. Together, these states have 199 Lok Sabha seats.

Amritsar and Ludhiana
Before one had even embarked on the three-day journey to gauge the political pulse of the country, Mani, a tea vendor at the Amritsar station, hinted at the bleak prospects of the ruling Shiromani Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alliance in the state. "They are imposing a tax on everything. It has become difficult to construct even a small house in Punjab," he complained.

Later, a group of government employees boarded the sleeper class. "The Akalis were unsure about their second term. So, they opened the government's coffers to party workers, leaving the state on the verge of bankruptcy. They don't have money left for development work," argued Baljeet Singh, a daily commuter between Amritsar and Ludhiana.

"Law and order have gone to the dogs in Punjab," added Singh's colleague, Manish Arora. It appeared corruption and taxation were bigger concerns here than inflation, unemployment and a decisive leadership.

Two hours later, as the train arrived in Ludhiana, the angst was palpable. "People are unhappy with the Akalis," said shopkeeper Chaini Ram, straining to catch a glimpse of Manish Tewari, information and broadcasting minister and local parliamentarian, who had just arrived from Delhi.

Here, many have refused to buy the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)'s arguments, following the recent controversy surrounding the party.

Moradabad, Lucknow and Varanasi
At 6 am, the shrill voices of newspaper and tea vendors woke the passengers sleeping on the seats, floor, aisles, and outside the lavatories, braving the cold. The train had reached Moradabad, after a delay of two hours.

"People are extremely upset with (Samajwadi Party chief) Mulayam Singh," said Aayan Noor, 25, in the general coach. "Muslims are shifting either to Mayawati (Bahujan Samaj Party head) or the Congress."

Computer engineers Ritwick Saxena and Rajesh Varshney say Modi and the BJP have consolidated the upper caste vote bank here and the party is likely to increase its vote tally. "Mayawati's BSP will emerge as the leading party, followed by the BJP," says Saxena.

"People are fed up with the Congress. Everyone understands the politics behind increasing the cap on cooking gas cylinders from nine to 12," added Varshney.

In Uttar Pradesh, the electoral battle is primarily fought between the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the BJP and the Congress on caste and regional lines.

Only a few here are willing to change their political preferences, and it is expected this might lead to a close contest. "Unless the BJP fields strong and grass-roots level candidates, its chances are low," says A K Chatterjee, a Varanasi resident. "Rallies are no parameter for judging a party. Lakhs of people are turning up for BSP, BJP and SP rallies."

Patna to Howrah
At 12.30 am, R K Sudhakar, 24, boards the train at the Mughalsarai station. After initially hesitating, he lashes out at the Congress. "Kapil Sibal and P Chidambaram have studied in institutes such as Oxford and Harvard. Then, why is India's GDP falling?" he asks.

Sudhakar, a locomotive operator, says Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is facing anti-incumbency and his party, the Janata Dal (United), is on the decline. "I am looking for a change and will vote for the BJP."

Seven hours after leaving Mughalsarai, the train arrives in Patna.

"The Bihar government has become corrupt. Officers demand bribes for every small work," says Bhanu Pratap, a retired school teacher, adding he had to pay a bribe of Rs 6,000 for his pension money. Though many shared such experiences, a substantial number said they supported the JD (U). "Muslims and Kurmis (to which Kumar belongs) will never go to any other party. He has transformed the state," said Amit Kumar, a young bank employee.

"The community (Kurmi) will vote for Nitish babu, and so will I," says Ramdev Rai, a farmer in Begusarai.

However, many say the BJP will gain at the expense of the JD (U). "Lalu Yadav's party will also benefit because of the differences between the BJP and the JD (U). Yadav votes are returning to the RJD," says Babloo Srivastava of Chhapra.

Many first-time voters are supporting Modi. It is expected the AAP might win one or two seats in and around Patna.

In Jharkhand, groundswell support for the BJP is evident.

In West Bengal, the destination of Pfizer employees Prasenjeet Dhar, Prasenjeet Biswas and Sayantan Bose, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) reigns.

"TMC is the only name that resonates among Bengalis now," says Bose, a CPM student activist.