Political upheavals in Uttar Pradesh have begun with a vengeance as parties hunker down to decide on the individuals they will field as MLAs and many others, anticipating they might be denied a nomination, have started to switch party loyalties.
Dara Singh Chauhan, environment and forest minister in the Yogi Adityanath government, on Wednesday became the second minister to resign after Swami Prasad Maurya quit both the government and the Bharatiya Janata Party on Tuesday.
Both assessed their chances and were given to understand that they would not figure on the BJP’s list of nominees. Both are likely to join the Samajwadi Party, though Maurya said he would reveal his cards on Friday.
Maurya represents the Padrauna seat, the area where the Congress used to hold sway and former Union minister RPN Singh won the seat once.
Both leaders belong to Other Backward Classes (OBC), with Dara Singh representing the Noniya Chauhan caste in which he had substantial following and Maurya representing the Kushwaha caste. Both represent important areas in Eastern UP (Chauhan from the Mau-Ghosi-Azamgarh area) where the BJP had posted a stellar performance in the last Assembly election. Interestingly, hours after he quit the BJP and the ministership, a 2014 criminal case against SP Maurya was revived.
Some MLAs owing allegiance to Maurya are also expected to follow their leader. Roshan Lal Verma, Brijesh Prajapati, Bhagwati Sagar, and Vinay Shakya have already announced their decision to quit the BJP.
The traffic is mostly into the Samajwadi Party, which has emerged as the biggest challenger to the BJP. Imran Masood, sitting Congress MLA, had joined the SP earlier this week. More defections in Western UP, which will go to the polls in the first phase of the elections (February 10), and central UP (14 February) should be expected before January 21, which is the last date for filing nominations.
The BJP is now beginning to show some signs of concern at the exit of the OBC leaders. Some months ago, OP Rajbhar, an alliance partner of the BJP representing important OBC communities, crossed over to the SP. Now, two more leaders have followed suit. This kind of caste consolidation can harm the BJP’s prospects, though it is too early to predict how badly the party would fare.
Meanwhile, the BJP held a series of meetings in Lucknow finalising candidates, and sources said the possibility of fielding Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath from Ayodhya was also flagged. The chief minister is currently a Member of the Legislative Council. The party has said Adityanath will not be fielded from Mathura.
The BJP's central election committee, whose members include Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is expected to meet later this week.
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