SP-Congress alliance front runner in UP: Poll

Another poll by Week-Hansa predicts hung Assembly, with BJP as the largest party

The pollsters are divided on who will take power in politically crucial Uttar Pradesh (UP), with an ABP News-Lokniti-CSDS survey projecting the Samajwadi Party (SP)-Congress alliance as front runner. The Week-Hansa poll predicted a hung Assembly, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) just ahead of the SP-Congress alliance.

According to Lokniti-CSDS for ABP News survey done in January, the SP-Congress alliance is set to gain near majority in UP, with 187-197 seats of the total 403 seats and around 35 per cent vote share. The BJP is getting 118-128 seats, with 29 per cent vote share. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is getting 76-86 seats and 23 per cent vote share.

In contrast, The Week-Hansa survey put the BJP tally at 192-196 seats and the SP-Congress at 178-182 seats. The BSP was shown getting just 20-24 seats.

Further, while the ABP News-Lokniti-CSDS survey said support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s demonetisation in UP is up from 35 per cent to 41 per cent in the past one month, the ‘mood of the nation’ survey done by India Today-Karvy, too, said Modi-led National Democratic Alliance can win as many as 360 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats, if the national elections were held today. 

The survey conducted across 19 states credited demonetisation behind the surge in Modi’s popularity. The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance would be restricted to 60 seats, it said.

According to the ABP News-CSDS-Lokniti survey, Modi remains popular in UP, with a 70 per cent approval rating.

However, the ABP News-Lokniti-CSDS survey said Akhilesh Yadav is the most popular chief ministerial candidate in UP, with 26 per cent respondents wanting him in the top post, followed by BSP chief Mayawati, who got 21 per cent votes. 

In 2012, the SP had swept the polls, with 29 per cent of the votes, leaving the BSP far behind, though the party had garnered 26 per cent votes.

Significantly, the poll shows the SP-Congress leading in all regions of the state, except the areas close to Delhi, where the BJP leads.

In terms of caste and community support, not only is the SP-Congress alliance getting three-fourths support from its core voters – the Muslims and the Yadavs - it is also picking up about one-fifth votes from communities that have traditionally backed its rivals. 

In Punjab, the India Today-Axis poll gave the Congress a majority, with 56-62 seats in the 117-member Assembly, while it gave 36-41 seats to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and just 18-22 to the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)-BJP combine.

Against this, the survey done by ABP News-Lokniti-CSDS gave 50-58 seats to SAD-BJP, 41-49 to Congress and 12 -18 to AAP.

CRYSTAL BALL GAZING

ABP NEWS-LOKNITI-CSDS
 

SP-Congress alliance: 187-197 seats of the total 403 and around 35% vote share

BJP: 118-128 seats with 29% vote share

BSP: 76-86 seats and 23% vote share

THE WEEK-HANSA
 

BJP: 192-196 seats

SP-Congress: 178-182 seats

BSP: 20-24 seats
 

INDIA TODAY-KARVY
 

Modi-led NDA can win as many as 360 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats due to demonetisation 

Congress-led UPA to get 60 seats