State scan: Results of ULBs' polls paint a fractured polity in Karnataka

With just seven months to go for the Lok Sabha elections, the results of the urban local bodies’ (ULBs’) elections have added to the hazy political environment in the state.

Unlike the Assembly elections, the Congress emerged as the largest party by winning 982 of the 2,664 seats spanning 29 city municipalities, 53 town municipalities and 23 town panchayats, followed by the BJP at 929. The JD (S), which now leads the coalition government in the state, finished a distant third with 375 seats.

A close analysis of the numbers, however, shows that the BJP has improved its tally as its win ratio has increased to 34 per cent compared to 18 per cent in 2013, when the elections were held for all 4,976 seats. When compared to the 2013 results, the victory percentage of both the Congress and JD (S) has gone down by four percentage points, respectively.

More importantly, the BJP has made inroads into civic bodies in places such as Hassan, Chitradurga or even Davanagere, which are traditional strongholds of either the JD (S) or Congress. In Chamarajnagar district, where the population of scheduled tribes and scheduled castes is high, the BJP did well.

But the outcome of elections to ULBs is no representation of the mood of the voters in the state, more so for parliamentary elections, where broader issues supersede local or regional factors.

Of the 105 urban local bodies that went to the polls, the Congress won control in 37 of those, followed by the BJP in 31 and the JD(S) in 12. However, the Congress and JD(S) together managed to win 12 more urban bodies through a post-poll arrangement even though the parties contested on their own. 

“It’s an indication that the Congress has an upper hand in negotiations with the JD(S) for seats for the Parliament elections,” said Harish Ramaswamy, professor of political science, Karnataka University.

“ULB elections are meant to consolidate the social bases of political parties, and that way, it has been decisive to support the Congress’ increasing social base and the strategy it adopted,” he added.

For now, it’s advantageous for the BJP though the Congress will improve its situation, he said.

One thing evident is that like the assembly elections, the voters are in no mood to put all their eggs in one basket, which means that the ruling coalition and the BJP will have to earn their goodwill before the parliamentary elections. The one factor that may work in favour of the ruling coalition is a broader pre-poll alliance of non-BJP parties or even a tactical understanding between the Congress and JD(S), and that’s what both the parties are seen to be going after. The parties fought the elections independently but when it came to keeping the BJP away in some civic bodies, they joined hands, as in the Bengaluru civic body, for which the saffron party won the highest number of seats.

A reason why the Congress and JD(S) did not form a pre-poll alliance is that they have common social bases — Other Backward Classes, Dalits and minorities. “In the case of a three-cornered contest, votes are divided and the BJP gets a majority,” said Muzaffar Assadi, professor at the Department of Political Science, University of Mysore. 

“The BJP’s vote percentage is increasing in every election. This was not the case for the Congress or JD(S). So, the question is that if these parties come together, they will be able to counter the BJP. But, this is not possible when elections are fought for local bodies. Probably they might go for a pre-poll alliance for the Lok Sabha elections. They want to counter the BJP at the central level, not at the local level.” 

Ahead of the ULB elections, Karnataka Congress President Dinesh Gundu Rao cited the same reason for the party not having a pre-poll alliance with the JD(S), saying that it could cause problems for party workers. 

Another reason why ULB election results won’t have much impact on the general elections is that local elections are influenced heavily by caste factors, populist policies and local leaders. But in parliamentary elections, voters look at central leaders who can provide a stable government. A lot of those are driven by perception even though broader economic issues like rising fuel prices, unemployment and inflation play some role in deciding the winning prospects of parties, says M P Nadagouda, president of the JD(U) in Karnataka.