State Scan: Tamil Nadu by-polls to 20 Assembly seats will be a test for all

The coming elections to 20 Assembly seats are important to both factions of the AIADMK and DMK

The AIADMK government in Tamil Nadu, after 20 months of political instability since J Jayalalithaa’s death, can breathe easy, at least for now, because the Madras High Court has upheld the Tamil Nadu Assembly speaker’s order disqualifying the 18 dissident AIADMK MLAs of the T T V Dinakaran faction.

For Dinakaran and for his jailed aunt V K Sasikala, who was also an aide of J Jayalalithaa, the verdict is a setback. For Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami  (EPS) and his deputy O Paneerselvam (OPS), while the verdict is good news, the challenge is the by-polls for the 20 constituencies (for the 18 disqualified and two MLAs who died).

In the 234-member assembly, the ruling faction commands the loyalty of 116 members in the reduced house strength of 214. The majority mark is 108.

18 MLAs’ case

Ever since the death of Jayalalithaa in December 2016, Tamil Nadu has been riven by feuds over leadership issues. The AIADMK became divided into three camps, led by EPS, OPS and Dinakaran, but later the factions of EPS and OPS merged.

Nineteen MLAs loyal to Dinakaran had met then Governor Vidyasagar Rao in 2017 and withdrew support to the Palaniswami government. This prompted government whip S Rajendran to ask for their disqualification. Within a few weeks, S T K Jakkaiyan, one of the 19, switched back to the EPS camp. In September last year, the Speaker disqualified the remaining 18 MLAs under the anti-defection law.

In February last year, when OPS had rebelled against the AIADMK, EPS won the vote of confidence with the support of 122 MLAs, but 11 legislators, including OPS, voted against him, only to join hands with the chief minister in the next few months. Following the merger, OPS settled for the deputy chief minister’s post, but Dinakaran and his supporters were sidelined, which prompted him to float his party in March.

The DMK and the Dinakaran faction had moved separate petitions challenging the speaker’s decision not to disqualify OPS and his supporters, while taking a contradictory stand in the case of MLAs who showed allegiance to Dinakaran.

What the verdict means

Sumanth Raman, a political analyst, says the judgment has come as a shot in the arm for Palaniswami. Though Dinakaran tried to put on a brave face, the fact that those MLAs who stuck by him have now lost their assembly seats and face a bleak future will deter others from trooping to his side in the near term, he says. 

For the DMK also, the verdict was a dampener. It had hoped the confidence vote that might have followed a possible reinstatement of the MLAs would have provided it an opportunity to topple the government.

What next?

All eyes are on the by-polls for the 20 vacant seats. Political experts say it is important for the EPS-OPS faction to sweep the by-polls, but it will be very challenging, considering the image the party has earned.

The administration is facing corruption charges on a number of schemes including highway contracts, the midday meal scheme, and the gutka case. The High Court, a couple of weeks ago, ordered a CBI probe into contracts awarded by the highways department, a portfolio held by the chief minister. But, the apex court stayed any enquiry against the chief minister in the case.

As far as industry is concerned, after being criticised for losing major investment to neighbouring states, the administration has swung into action with initiatives including single-window clearance, fast clearances of files, etc.

However, the shutting down of Sterlite’s copper smelter in Thootkudi and the opposition to the Rs 100 billion Chennai-Salem green corridor have put Tamil Nadu on the back burner.

EPS, in the meantime, has invited “with love and affection” the rebel leaders, excluding Dinakaran, to come back to the party. Law Minister C Ve Shanmugam said. “The best administration and speedy execution have become the hallmark of this government. The EPS government’s popularity is soaring.”

For Dinakaran, the challenge is immense. While he did win the RK Nagar assembly by-poll, replicating this win across Tamil Nadu will not be easy. 

Rapprochement with the AIADMK remains a possibility with leaders on both sides still comparing their squabble to a family feud among brothers, said Raman.

For the DMK, more so for M K Stalin, the by-polls are important since they will be a major test after he took leadership of the party.