 "Tamil Nadu edgy ahead of verdict in Jaya's assets case")
The big question is if Jayalalithaa is convicted what will its impact be on the Tamil Nadu government and the political future of the AIADMK supremo. AIADMK members are mum about such a possibility, though some are preparing to celebrate a possible acquittal. Jayalalithaa's political rivals are expecting a conviction, which will encourage them to work for victory in the 2016 Assembly elections.
The case was filed by Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Subramanian Swamy in 1997. His allegation was: as chief minister of Tamil Nadu during 1991-96, Jayalalithaa amassed Rs 66 crore of wealth disproportionate to known sources of her income.
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Jayalalithaa's secretary Sasikala Natarajan, her niece Ilavarasi and nephew Sudhakaran also figured in the list of accused.
Several analysts said an adverse verdict might jeopardise Jayalalithaa's immediate political future. They said if convicted, the Representation of the People Act would require Jayalalithaa to step down as chief minister until a higher court absolved her.
"Of course, she will appoint a proxy and continue to run the government. But it will certainly not be a government run by Jayalalithaa herself," said an AIADMK functionary. Requesting anonymity, he added that though welfare schemes might continue to be announced under the Amma brand, the full credit would not go to her.
Reports have surfaced speculating O Panneerselvam, the state's finance minister, will become the chief minister if Jayalalithaa decides to step down. Panneerselvam was appointed chief minister by the party when Jayalalithaa stepped down in 2001 after the Supreme Court ruled her appointment as unconstitutional.
A cabinet meeting this week is said to have decided the party's plan if the verdict goes against Jayalalithaa. If she is convicted, the opposition Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) might use it to counter the taint of the telecom spectrum scandal that claimed two of its ministers in the United Progressive Alliance government at the Centre.
If the sentence is for two years or more, the Representation of the People Act will bar Jayalalithaa from elections until she is acquitted by a higher court. This may throw up a whole bunch of uncertainties the state cannot afford as it struggles to retain its 'preferred investment destination' tag.
All these arguments, however, usually end with a well-stressed "but", followed by, "if she is acquitted, she will emerge much stronger in the 2016 Assembly polls".