The hunt for an heir: Will Shivpal and Akhilesh Yadav work as one party?

The death of Samajwadi Party (SP) patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav last week and the crowds that congregated to pay their last respects to the leader reaffirmed the political clout and the people connect the former defence minister wielded in the Hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh.

As the Yadav clan observes the customary period of mourning in the native Saifai village (Etawah district), questions are already being raised over the course that the 30-year-old party would take in the months to come.

Although Akhilesh Yadav, Mulayam’s son, is firmly in saddle as SP national president, the party has been facing rough weather ever since he rose to the helm in 2017 after a bitter power feud in the family and the party organisation.

Not only has the SP been on a losing spree in successive elections — Lok Sabha (2019) and UP Assembly (2017 and 2022) — a bevy of senior party leaders have either jumped ship or passed away.

Owing to the power struggle within the Yadav clan, Akhilesh’s estranged uncle Shivpal Singh Yadav formed a rebel Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party Lohia (PSPL) to assert himself. Although the PSPL has not been able to perform well at the elections, Shivpal earlier this year hosted a meeting of prominent Yadav leaders in UP to create a parallel platform for the influential community, which has so far been staunchly loyal to the SP.

Now, the absence of Mulayam from the SP firmament will test the political and electoral acumen of Akhilesh, who would be entirely on his own to sew alliances with other outfits, and also other segments before flagship elections.

At the same time, he would be expected to assuage the perceptibly hurt feelings of a section of the Yadav community, which has been feeling sidelined and warming up to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), especially after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, which saw the political ascendance of the saffron party.

While the SP and PSPL had forged an alliance ahead of the 2022 UP Assembly polls, which saw the victory of Shivpal as an SP candidate from the Jaswantnagar constituency in Etawah, the bonhomie evaporated soon and the two sided reverted to coldness in relations.

Interestingly, Mulayam was not only a unifying figure for the Yadav clan, he commanded respect from the larger political spectrum much beyond the state boundaries and ideological moorings.

While the jury is still out on the possible scenarios for the SP without the patronage of Mulayam, opinions are divided over the fate of the socialist party, which came into existence in 1992 in the heightened era of Mandal-Kamandal politics. Is the socialist party heading for a reincarnation?

Badri Narayan of the Govind Ballabh Pant Social Science Institute, Prayagraj (Allahabad), observed there were possibilities of Akhilesh benefitting from the sympathy wave after the death of Mulayam.

“There could be a scenario wherein Akhilesh and Shivpal decide to bury the hatchet and come together. If this does not happen, Shivpal will find it harder to survive politically,” he told Business Standard.

Narayan further said Akhilesh would constitute a team where the role of old-time SP leaders such as Azam Khan would be rather limited or non-consequential.

However, political commentator A P Tiwari foresees harder days for Akhilesh without Mulayam.

“There may be massive disorganisation in the party with a major chunk of both cadres and leaders gravitating towards Shivpal. Since Mulayam was a tall leader and worked tirelessly for the integration of the family, his absence will have larger organisational implications and ramifications for the Akhilesh-led SP,” he noted.

He reminded Shivpal still had robust grassroots connect in the state, which could pay political dividends in the absence of Mulayam. Meanwhile, the Yadav family has tried to show solidarity in the present time of grieving and reflect amity and unity at Saifai.

In fact, Shivpal, while talking to local news persons, stated he had never taken any decision that was not approved by his elder brother Mulayam, who was affectionately referred to as “Netaji” by his followers and the general public alike.

However, he also said it was not the right occasion to make any political comments since the family was mourning the loss of Netaji.

“I am ready to shoulder any responsibility given to me … even otherwise we have our own party organisation (PSPL) to try and accord respect to those leaders who have not been given their due or acknowledged so far,” he said without elaborating on his course of action.

PSPL Chief Spokesperson Deepak Mishra said the party would refrain from making any political statement at the moment other than talking about the contribution and personality of Netaji.

However, party units are discussing among themselves the side they would choose if such a possibility arose. A signpost would be the Lok Sabha seat of Mainpuri, which is now vacant and could see a by-election.

Will Shivpal and Akhilesh work as one party? Or different ones? This will hold the key to future developments.