The Thalaiva turbulence: How will Rajini's political entry impact TN polls

T E Narasimhan looks at how the entry of superstar Rajinikanth may change the script of the 2021 Tamil Nadu polls

It’s a debate that has been on for nearly a decade: Whether Rajinikanth will enter politics. It came to a conclusive end on Friday after the 69-year-old actor-turned-politician announced to launch a political party in January and contest the 2021 Assembly elections. V K Sasikala, a close aide of late J Jayalalithaa, will also be released from jail in January, throwing two unpredictables in the volatile political mix of Tamil Nadu.

Very little is known about Rajinikanth’s politics — his political motto and ideology and whether he would go solo or have alliances. Judging by his statements, the chances of aligning with the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) or the Opposition Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) are unlikely, which may leave the field open for a Rajinikanth-led third front.

“We will surely win the Assembly polls and give people a non-corrupt, honest, transparent, secular, and spiritual politics. A wonder and miracle will definitely happen,” Rajinikanth tweeted with the hashtag “It’s now or never…we will change everything”.

What exactly does this mean? And do Tamil Nadu voters even want to “change everything”? Political commentator M R Venkatesh describes Rajinikanth as “force multiplier, but not a force himself,” which means he needs to forge an alliance with one of the Dravidian parties.

But the actor said: “...a political change is imminent and extremely necessary now. If not now, never. We should change, change everything.” His comments were viewed as a direct attack on the ruling AIADMK. 

But, any alignment between the AIADMK ruling front and Rajinikanth is not ruled out. State Cabinet minister D Jayakumar said his party’s vote bank won’t be affected by Rajinikanth’s entry.

However, Tamil Nadu Deputy Chief Minister and AIADMK leader O Panneerselvam, who was pushing for a leadership change (against Chief Minister K Palaniswami) a few months back in the AIADMK said: “We welcome great actor Rajinikanth's decision to enter politics. In politics, anything can happen. If there is any chance, an alliance can be formed with his party.”

The problems with an alliance with the DMK are different. Venkatesh points out that the DMK family’s vast commercial interests are part of its politics. Rajinikanth has been acting. His next film project Annaatthe is produced by Sun Pictures, which is part of Sun Television Network, owned by the late DMK leader M Karunanidhi’s grandnephew Kalanithi Maran.

Senior DMK member and former Union telecom minister A Raja said: “The DMK’s vote bank will not be affected by Rajinikanth’s entry into politics. Tamil Nadu is known for Dravidian politics and not spiritual politics.” K Kanimozhi, sister of DMK leader M K Stalin and party’s deputy leader in Parliament, added Rajinikanth’s entry into the fray would not affect the chances of her party in the 2021 Assembly elections.

An option before Rajinikanth is banding together with regional parties, which are not happy going with either the AIADMK or the DMK.  During a recent meeting, district secretaries of the Rajini Makkal Mandaram said it should form an alliance with regional parties for a third front. Some parties, including the PMK, DMDK, MNM, AMMK, and Puthiya Thamizham, have shown interest in forming an alliance with the Rajinikanth’s party.

Political commentator and editor of Thuglak magazine S Gurumurthy — also Rajinikanth's friend — is of the view that the actor’s political entry would have a significant impact on state politics.  “A majority of votes in Tamil Nadu are non-DMK and non-AIADMK votes. Rajinikanth will target that. In reality, Rajinikanth is the only person who can defeat both. A survey, done before Rajinikanth announced his political entry, estimated that he has got around 14 per cent votes. So, if he can garner the anti-DMK and anti-AIADMK votes, he will emerge as a major factor.” 

On the possibility of Rajinikanth joining hands with the BJP, Gurumurthy said: “It depends on what’s the ground shift that takes place.” Senior leaders of the BJP, which is in alliance with the AIADMK, welcomed Rajinikanth’s announcement and asked him to join hands with them. The BJP has been favouring Rajinikanth's political foray and its senior leadership including Prime Minister Narendra Modi (who visited Rajinikanth’s house in 2017) and Home Minister Amit Shah are considered to be close.

Minutes after Rajinikanth's announcement, senior BJP leader Subramanian Swamy tweeted: “Good that ‘will he or will he not’ about Rajnikant joining politics has ended. The key battle will probably be between Rajnikanth and Sasikala. The BJP will be in a dilemma.”

Going with his old friend Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) will also be a challenge. Though both share the view that “change is required”, Kamal is an atheist, so Rajini's spiritual politics won’t find traction.

Political analyst Sumanth Raman said Rajnikanth’s political entry changes the basis of the political calculation of the election in 2021. “The challenge is putting ideas and talking about issues. This is not like the 1960s or 1990s when actors go and wave their hand and get votes. Social media is very strong and people will scrutinise everything he says.”

He agreed Rajinikanth has mass appeal and managed to create a network, even in villages. But there is another challenge: How he will fund the party? Even at a conservative estimate, if it costs Rs 1 crore (only to run the party) for one constituency, it would cost him around Rs 234 crore (the Tamil Nadu Assembly has 234 constituencies). Dravidian parties have traditionally spent money to buy votes. The figure can run into thousands of crores.

There is another imponderable. Sasikala — and her relatives Illavarasi and Sudhakaran — were sentenced to four years imprisonment by the Supreme Court in a disproportionate asset case. They are expected to be released in January. Sasikala’s political entry after the death of J Jayalalithaa had created a split within the AIADMK and now, with her possible release before the Assembly elections, the big question is how will this impact the AIADMK. Chief Minister Palaniswami recently said: “As far as we are concerned, there will be no change.” But Venkatesh said the reaction of AIADMK cadre must be watched.

Sasikala doesn’t have a track record of leading a party in an election. She is not known for oratory. Her appeal with the electorate is untested. While she enjoys the loyalty of several senior and mid-level leaders of the party and belongs to the Thevar caste, which has a stronghold over the party, whether this will be enough is the central question.