There are three parties now in the Rajya Sabha opposed to GST passage, the Congress with 60 members and the Tamil Nadu parties, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. Tamil Nadu sends 18 members to the Rajya Sabha and 16 oppose GST.
A tacit agreement has been reached, say top government sources, that AIADMK (12 members) will either abstain or walk out during voting. The other elements of the agreement are yet to become public, on what will be the quid for the pro.
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With Congress's apparently inflexible objection, it is likely to be isolated on the floor of the House. Its loneliness is all the more stark after the drumbeats on the Modi government completing two years in office and managing to form a government in Assam. The Congress has lost two state governments in this round of elections. And, on GST, it has no 'Plan B' to counter its inevitable irrelevance. "No idea" was the response of a senior MP from the Congress when asked what the party's strategy would now be.
In the Rajya Sabha, the Congress will cling to its differences on the Bill and maybe vote against it; maybe walk out of the House. The Bill - that even political rivals of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) such as the Janata Dal (U), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Samajwadi Party (SP) are supporting - is to be passed by a two-thirds majority of members present and voting. 'Present' and 'voting' are crucial words, for if those opposed to the Bill are not present and voting, the overall numbers will come down and the government will need to work less hard to reach the two-thirds number.
The GST story is not over with this Bill. There is another one - the Goods and Services Tax Bill itself, that will spell out the division of tax powers between Centre and states. This one is being drafted by the Empowered Committee comprising finance ministers in various states. The Committee is headed by West Bengal's Amit Mitra. Although the committee hasn't met for three months, much of the drafting work is complete. This will be the model Bill for states to follow. As this is a money Bill, it cannot be rejected or delayed by the Rajya Sabha. Both Bills are likely to be passed in the monsoon session, the Constitution amendment first and then the enabling Bill.
If the deadline of the monsoon session for passage cannot be kept, the enabling Bill can also be brought through an ordinance. It needs only a simple majority to be passed. "If the government can ensure a two-thirds majority, the rest of the process can be speeded," says former Lok Sabha secretary-general and constitution expert Subhash Kashyap.
At least 15 states will be required to ratify the resolutions in their Assembly. They will then have to start working on local language translations. Article 174 of the Constitution says a state legislature must meet at least twice a year and the interval between any two sessions should not be more than six months. There is no bar on the number of session in a year. The Governor calls for the meetings of the legislature on advice from the Speaker. So, a session of the Assembly can be called any time.
Can the government reach the magic number of 15 states that must pass the legislation to qualify for a constitutional amendment? After the Assembly elections of 2016, the BJP controls eight states on its own and six in alliance with other parties, as in Arunachal Pradesh (where it is supporting the Kalikho Pul government) Andhra Pradesh (in alliance with the Telugu Desam Party) and Punjab (in alliance with the Akali Dal). On GST, it has the support of JD (U) and RJD, which is in power in Bihar, and the SP, in power in UP, among others. So, it will have no difficulty in requesting at least 15 state legislatures to adopt the Bill passed by the Centre. This process is likely to be telescoped - many state governments will simultaneously call a meeting of their Assemblies and pass the Bills.
These will then be sent for presidential assent. Once the President signs, GST will become a reality, ready for rollout on April 1, 2017 - like it or not.