UP, Bihar bypolls: As BJP turns into Goliath, David has a better chance

The BJP would do well to remember that there are no permanent allies, only permanent interests

Newspapers on Thursday morning reported some seismic activity having occurred in the Hindi heartland. While the shockwaves still reverberate, experts suggest that the repercussions are likely to be felt in the near future. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was trounced in Uttar Pradesh’ Phulpur and Gorakhpur Lok Sabha seats it held earlier, and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) retained Araria in Bihar, despite BJP and ally Janata Dal (United) contesting the bypolls together.

In 2014, UP Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Maurya had won Phulpur with a margin of more than 300,000 votes, while CM Yogi Adityanath had won Gorakhpur with an even bigger margin. The informal understanding between Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP) and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) pulled off a shocker in both these seats, especially Gorakhpur.

In Araria, the battle in 2014 had been a three-way one. In the bypoll this time, however, the equations had changed, with JD(U) and BJP being allies (and ruling the state). In 2014, RJD had managed to poll 42.5 per cent of the votes, while BJP and JDU had polled 27.3 and 23.1 per cent, respectively. This time, the RJD managed to exceed the combined force of the two ruling parties by 35,000 votes. Even if we concede that one party, JD(U), cannot transfer its votes to another (BJP) completely – unless you are Mayawati’s BSP – this remains a comprehensive and important win for RJD under Tejashwi Yadav. We must remember that Bihar CM Nitish Kumar had campaigned hard for the BJP candidate, even as RJD patriarch Lalu Prasad was lodged in jail. For a young Tejashwi to have overcome such odds and still retained Araria is a big political achievement.

Analyses of these polls will come a dime a dozen, but it is still important to articulate the main takeaways from these results and the new political equations.

The syllabus for Masters in Social Engineering has changed

In 2014, the Modi juggernaut had rolled on with unprecedented success (for the BJP) in overcoming the dichotomies of the Hindu society. In the Presidential form of election that the party ran, Modi was the big, inspiring pole projecting hope and change. And the large tent that the BJP created under this pole included the differing, often bickering sections of the Hindu society (especially in a state like UP). Modi was projected as an OBC leader and BJP was at pains to underline how this was going to be a magnet for the OBC vote. This myth of the OBC voting ‘block’ (more on this some other time) was perpetuated for long but it hid a reality. The various castes that make up the OBC block often compete for power and patronage with each other. More often than not, they are in conflict with each other (remember Jat, Gujjar in Rajasthan?). Modi, the big leader and his campaign were able to paper over these contradictions in 2014 (and later, too).

This broad social alliance (large umbrella, if you so prefer) that the BJP had managed to stitch together had upper castes, OBCs and Dalits in it. Do they remain as supportive of the BJP project four years later? This is in question, especially in the state of UP, where the patchwork seems to have been blown to smithereens.

Since the UP Assembly elections of 2017 (which gave the BJP another huge mandate), the state has been ruled by Ajay Singh Bisht, known as Yogi Adityanath, the Mahant of the Gorakhpur mutt. Adityanath himself belongs to the Thakur community. While power in UP was captured with the support of different communities, their share of patronage and power seems to have gone missing since. It had been pointed out as early as in July 2017 that power and powerful positions in UP had been captured by the upper castes. Political circles were agog with complaints from old BJP-Sangh hands that it was more like Thakur raj in UP rather than BJP raj. Plum postings in bureaucracy and police are said to have been handed out to the Thakur community. With no share of power, the communities that might have supported the BJP earlier are now having a rethink. With Modi’s own popularity and charisma not being at the level it was in 2014, it will be tough to paper over these contradictions now.

The results in Phulpur and Gorakhpur show how this difference has played out. The BJP was faced by a combination of SP, with its strong Yadav and Muslim voting groups, and BSP, with its strong and transferable Dalit voting group. The elections played out as a contest between a Dalit+OBC alliance against an upper caste party. The results are now known.

The loss in Gorakhpur is going to hurt

Gorakhpur is the seat of the Gorakhnath Mutt, of which Adityanath is the Mahant at present. The Gorakhpur Lok Sabha constituency is not the BJP’s stronghold, it is the Mutt’s stronghold. In 1962, the then Mahant of the Mutt, Digvijai Nath lost the polls by just over 3,000 votes while contesting as a Hindu Maha Sabha candidate. In 1967, he won it by a margin of 42,000 as an independent.

When Nath passed away in 1969, the Mutt lost control over the seat for the next 20 years. Things changed in 1989, when Avaidyanath, Adityanath’s predecessor, won it again for the Hindu Maha Sabha (contested on a BJP ticket in 1991). Since then, the seat has been represented by the Mahant of the Mutt. The stories of how the Mutt controls Gorakhpur are now part of the legend. With Adityanath moving to the CM’s seat in Lucknow, BJP chose to give the ticket to a Brahmin candidate, who was beaten by the SP-BSP combine. A look at the 1989 vote share might also reveal that the then Janata Dal and BSP candidates had polled similar number of votes (when combined) as the victorious Avaidyanath.

In a society as politically aware as UP, the BJP’s loss in Gorakhpur is going to be talked about for long. It was not just the citadel of the Mutt but also of the chief minister, who could not secure it. The significance of this loss will not go unregistered. This time, it was the SP which was able to build an umbrella coalition of different community interests in Gorakhpur as it gave the ticket to a candidate of the Nishad community. The father of the 29-year-old Praveen Kumar Nishad had founded the NISHAD (Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal) Party in the state. With the support of BSP votes, this social coalition was able to beat the upper caste candidate of the ruling BJP.

The loss in Gorakhpur will hurt the BJP also because such caste equations are not limited to Gorakhpur. The perception of the BJP as an upper-caste party that has empowered Thakurs in the state even more is strong, and its repercussions might be felt in other places as well.

The pole star for the Opposition

The pole star might not illuminate the path but it does help navigate. Like any bypoll, a win in Gorakhpur, Phulpur or Araria (or even an Ajmer or Alwar earlier) does not yet paint a rosy picture for the Opposition. This win might not illuminate the path for the Opposition, but it sure shows a direction it can follow, provided the right lessons are learnt. The only way forward for the Opposition is to create wide social alliances and build a minimum consensus among parties to succeed against the BJP in the next general elections – be it in 2019 or earlier.

The BJP managed to create this patchwork of social alliances in different states with the hope of coming to power under the leadership of Narendra Modi, but it seems to have forgotten to share the power with them since. This is not to argue that there are no inherent contradictions in the Opposition camp. In UP, for example, SP and BSP workers have been bitter enemies for long. Reports from Gorakhpur and Phulpur indicate that there was bonhomie this time, but the preservation of a team spirit might require constant effort from the leadership. At this juncture, however, their interests are served better by staying together and fighting the BJP. As in international relations, so in the electoral politics of UP and Bihar, it might pay the BJP to remember that there are no permanent allies but only permanent interests.

What should terrify the BJP is that the coming together of rivals can humiliate the BJP, but its coming together with the JD(U) failed to yield any result. The BJP's challenge would be to avoid turning into a Goliath as it proceeds to meet David.

Twitter: @bhayankur