Uphill task for Gujarat's new CM

Anandiben's successor Vijay Rupani will have to win back Patidars, Dalits, farmers and unemployed youths for a smooth 2017 re-election

Recent agitations by the Dalit community led to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh conducting a survey in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's home state. The survey reportedly found that if state elections were to be held today, the BJP would manage 60-65 of the 182 seats in the legislative assembly.

Some say because of this, the BJP ruled out the possibility of its national president, Amit Shah, becoming the state's next chief minister (CM). On Friday, it appointed state chief Vijay Rupani as CM and Nitin Patel, a cabinet minister, as his deputy. However, in one sense, it seemback to square one, to its 1996 setback, when Shankersinh Vaghela led a rebellion in the party. By her admission, succeeding Modi as CM of Gujarat was going to be a tough task for Anandiben. However, no one had anticipated the flurry of troubles that would befall the BJP under its first female CM.

What began with her own Patidar (Patel) community, led by the ambitious 22-year-old Hardik Patel, agitating over unemployed youths, leading to police excess and violence across the state, was followed by a drubbing in the local body elections in rural areas. By the time Anandiben Patel announced a slew of measures to appease youths and farmers alike, corruption allegations for favouring daughter Anar Patel's business associates emerged. The outrage over Dalit youths being thrashed publicly over alleged cow killing was the final nail in the coffin.

Anandiben was known to be result- oriented and seemed to carry a long-term vision. Her Gatisheel (progressive) Gujarat programme saw an average 130 per cent success rate in tribal, health and infrastructure services. But she was too slow to react to sudden events. It took six to eight months for her government to announce a Rs 1,000-crore package and a 10 per cent additional quota under the Economically Backward Class (EBC) to appease the Patidars. It was only after state-wide protests and politicisation by others that the government took action against the cow vigilantes who thrashed the Dalit youths, apart from offering compensation to the victims.

All this, coupled with the recent setback of the high court quashing the ordinance for the 10 per cent additional EBC quota, pose a tough challenge for Patel's successor, who has 16 months before the state assembly elections in December 2017. "The new CM will somehow have to placate not only the Patidars and Dalits but also tribals and farmers, who feel deprived but are not voicing it. A weak organisational structure in the Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) might help to some extent but a clear majority in the 2017 election seems a distant dream for the BJP," says Achyut Yagnik, a social and political analyst.

Farmer votes are one issue. The government has been late in turning its focus towards the section (its Agricultural Policy was announced only this year) of 15 million workers. It employs a little more than 50 per cent of the state's population. While the government says the agri growth rate rose from 3.3 per cent annually in the 1990s to 11.1 per cent during the decade between 2002 and 2012 (Modi rule), the numbers have been a subject of much debate among economists.

Social activist Sagar Rabari, also convenor of Jamin Adhikar Andolan Gujarat that works actively with farmers, shared an interesting analysis. "The fact that Patidars (traditional landholding communities in Gujarat) are the crucial factor in turning around election results is a myth. With agricultural growth taking a beating, most of them are in bad shape in terms of funds. While everyone is trying to fix the blame on Anandiben, she is actually the victim of decades of insensitive agricultural policy followed by Modi, whose prime focus had always been industrialisation. He was lucky, as the monsoons were good. A couple of years of bad monsoon exposed this government," he says.

Patidars, he feels, were shielded by their income from the small enterprises they had set up with funds from selling their lands. With small enterprises shutting down, things have been worse. Add the spiralling cost of a private education. "There was a lot of frustration in the community but they did not know exactly what was wrong. When the issue of reservation was raised, they jumped in without even realising that not getting government jobs is not really their biggest problem," said Rabari. Patidars, however, are known to be able to swing election results in as many as 73 assembly seats. This time, it is widely said, the bulk of their votes would not go to the BJP. "Around 10-15 per cent of their votes were going to the Congress. This time, the party can expect an increase of 30-35 percentage points in their vote share among the community," said sociologist Vidyut Joshi.

Will part of the urban Patidar vote go to the AAP, banking on this and the Dalit and tribal vote bank? If they nominate Dalits in strategic constituencies, they have a chance, feels Joshi. He feels if the polls were to take place today, the Congress would get 100 seats and the BJP about 80. AAP does not really stand a chance, feel most observers. Given the strong anti-incumbency after almost 20 years of BJP rule, the random voter is likely to go with the Congress, as they do not have much else to choose from. A third party has never tasted much success in Gujarat assembly elections, except in 1990 when the Janta Party won 70 seats out of the 182 and Chimanbhai Patel had formed a coalition government.

In the latest local body polls, the Congress had wrested 23 of 31 district panchayats and 113 of 193 taluka panchayats. There was, however, a clear divide in the urban and rural votes, the BJP faring much better in cities and towns. It continued to hold on to nagarpalikas, or town councils, winning 42 of 56 municipalities. Joshi felt, "If one superimposed these 23 panchayat seats on legislative assembly seats, the Congress stands to win around 100 seats in Gujarat." The Congress says it is improving its booth management. "We have had a healthy vote share in past elections. Nevertheless, we will be asking potential candidates who will seek a ticket to come up with a booth-level strategy while applying. We will be meeting for incorporating more strategies," said party leader Shaktisinh Gohil.

What would possibly add to the BJP's woes is that in the past two assembly elections, the difference in vote share in many key constituencies between BJP and Congress has been only about five percentage points. "This could easily swing in 2017," feels Rabari. In the past three assembly elections, the BJP has comfortably maintained its lead in terms of seats but with vote share going down after the Modi 'wave' dying out, things could change.

Muslim vote is another factor. About 10 per cent are Muslims, traditionally a Congress vote bank. However, many from the community voted for the BJP after Modi managed to win over some community leaders. However, says Joshi, "The majority of Muslim votes have always gone to the Congress. The ones who voted for the BJP are mainly the trader community -Bohras, Khojas and the Memons." Together, the Muslim voter might influence outcomes in 36 constituencies, and the Congress would definitely have an edge here. Muslim businessmen this newspaper spoke to were non-committal about whom the community vote would go to. No one wished to be quoted at all, perhaps showcasing the uneasiness with the ruling BJP that has already set in.

ANANDIBEN'S LARGESSE:

• 6,000 acres bounty to co-operative societies and agricultural produce committees at concessional rates
   
• Rs 1,000-crore package for economically backward category (EBC) youths
   
• Opening 66,000 positions in the state government for employment, a first in terms of size since formation of the state
   
• Announcement of schemes and policies for agriculture such as crop insurance, organic farming, small industries, IT , films, tourism, Alang ship breaking industry, start- ups and cottage industry
   
• Increase in outlay for social services from 42% during Narendra Modi's chief ministership to 48 %
   
• Launch of Gatisheel Gujarat programme for focussed efforts in areas like womens empowerment, cleanliness, industrial development, health, and education
   
• Allotment of revolving fund for women's empowerment, linked self-help group to banks and cash credit of Rs 60 cr

CHALLENGES BEFORE NEW CM

• Placating the agitating Patidars, especially after Gujarat HC quashes 10% EBC
   
• Dissuading protesting Dalits
   
• Increase jobs in govt and private sector
   
• Win back rural votes the BJP lost during the local body polls last year
   
• Ensure balanced development across large, medium and small industries