Why Bihar CM Nitish Kumar is known to pull a rabbit out of the hat

Amid speculation of a widening rift between the major allies of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar - the Janata Dal (United), or JD(U), and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) - Chief Minister (CM) Nitish Kumar last week announced his intention to undertake a caste census in Bihar. 

“We will call an all-party meeting to take everyone’s view on the issue. Not everyone is on board. We will discuss and then the proposal will be put before the state Cabinet. After that, we will start work,” Nitish told reporters.  

This important development comes at a time when there is newfangled camaraderie between Lalu Prasad’s family and Nitish. The Bihar CM also recently met Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader and Lalu’s son Tejashwi Yadav behind closed doors on May 11.

“It was about the census issue. Tejashwi has been vocal about the caste census. Nitish expressed his support for this,” said a senior JD(U) leader. 

Previously, the two leaders attended each other’s Iftar party, setting off rumours of a new political arithmetic in Bihar. 

The ties between the JD(U) and the BJP have been choppy in the past few months and Nitish’s decision to hold a caste headcount left the BJP confused and embarrassed as nobody - not even senior ministers - from the saffron party had any inkling of this move. 

The message 

“Nitish is using the caste census to cut the BJP down to size,” said senior RJD leader Shivanand Tiwari, adding, “After winning Uttar Pradesh’s Assembly polls, some BJP leaders started doing hardcore Hindu politics. Nitish doesn’t like this. Despite being in league with the saffron party, Nitish wants to project a secular image. That’s why it’s important for him to keep his ally guessing.”

According to political analysts in Patna, Nitish wants to target the next Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in Bihar. In 2019, the JD(U) won 16 of the 17 contested seats, whereas the BJP won all 17 seats it contested. 

The real shock, however, came in 2020. In the Bihar Assembly elections, the RJD and the BJP won 75 and 74 seats, respectively; Nitish’s JD(U) plunged to No. 3 with just 43 seats. It was a crushing outcome for the JD(U) stalwart. Nitish reportedly felt it was the BJP which embarrassed him by propping up Chirag Paswan. 

In the Assembly as well, JD(U) ministers had to face uncomfortable questions from the BJP lawmakers. Things came to a head during the Budget session of the Bihar Assembly, when Nitish and Speaker Vijay Kumar Sinha (elected on a BJP ticket) publicly sparred over the running of the House.

Party insiders say the caste census comes as a golden opportunity for the embattled leader. “It’s like striking two birds with one stone. The caste-based census will boost Nitish’s image in his assiduously cultivated non-Yadav Other Backward Class (OBC) vote bank. It will also help him keep those local BJP politicians quiet who have been attacking him for the past two years,” they added.

The impact

The JD(U) termed this survey a ‘developmental necessity’.

“This will give us the much-needed data to incorporate progressive changes into the policy-making and resource allocation. It’s purely a development initiative and will benefit the people,” said a senior minister in the Nitish Cabinet. However, the leader refused to be named, given the political hot potato the topic is.

While the state BJP leadership doesn’t want to oppose the move, it’s wary of its ally’s intention. The announcement of the OBC census in Bihar has put the saffron party in a tricky situation. It took 48 hours just to confirm that it would participate in the all-party meeting scheduled for June 1.  

“We are not against the caste census. We merely differ on modalities,” said Bihar BJP Spokesperson Nikhil Anand. 

“Do you know that the 2011 Socio-Economic Caste Census was riddled with errors? There were more than 428,000 castes on the list and it had more than 100 million errors. The Narendra Modi government has done a wonderful job on the social justice front by giving constitutional status to the OBC commission. The days of casteism and dynastic social justice leaders are almost over. The idea of social justice cannot be confined to the caste census,” said Anand, who is also the BJP OBC Morcha general secretary. 

However, there’s no denying that the newfound bonhomie between Nitish and the Lalu family has raised eyebrows in the BJP ranks. RJD leaders are pointing to the ‘timing’ of the recent Central Bureau of Investigation’s (CBI’s) raids on Lalu-Rabri residence in Patna and 15 other locations in the ‘land-for-job’ scam. 

“Just a week after Nitish met with Tejashwi, the CBI was at 10 Circular Road (Lalu-Rabri residence in Patna). This shows the level of insecurity of the saffron party. It’s not a raid on Lalu, but a political message for Nitish,” said a senior RJD leader.  

Political analysts also point out the BJP’s lack of a credible OBC face in Bihar. “While the BJP garnered a big chunk of OBC votes in the 2019 and the 2020 elections, it still doesn’t have a credible and popular face in Bihar. Sushil Kumar Modi is a well-known backward leader from Bihar, but he was sent to Delhi leaving behind a power vacuum. There are no big leaders in the Bihar BJP right now, therefore, it is unable to do anything,” told an analyst. 

Nitish has emerged a clear winner in this political game. Despite having just 43 Members of the Legislative Assembly in the 243-member Assembly, he appears to be holding all the cards right now and both the RJD and the BJP appear to be dancing to his tune.

At an informal discussion between Nitish and members of the press a few years ago in the Bihar Assembly, Nitish joked with the reporters: “Humko rajneeti ka kuchha khiladi mat samajhiye,” (Don’t write me off as a political neophyte).

He has proved in the past that he is a master of surprises.