Why BJP is rattled by SP's infighting

Any split in the SP, whether overt or otherwise, would be advantageous to BSP and puncture BJP's ambitions of making an electoral comeback in UP

The deepening fratricidal war in the Samajwadi Party (SP) is making the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) nervous. The developments in SP threaten to impact BJP's well laid out strategy aimed at emerging as the single largest party in a three cornered contest between itself, the SP and Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

In the assessment of party's Uttar Pradesh leaders, any split in the SP, whether overt or otherwise, would be advantageous to BSP and puncture the BJP's ambitions of making an electoral comeback in the key north Indian state. The last BJP government in Lucknow was way back in 2002.

However, it won a spectacular 71 of UP's 80 Lok Sabha seats in 2014 on the back of Narendra Modi's message but also the clever patchwork of castes that Amit Shah stitched for the party and the split in Muslim votes between the SP and BSP. The BJP has hopes of repeating this with the SP government facing anti-incumbency.

Uppermost in this strategy of the BJP is to ensure a repeat of the split in Muslim votes vertically between the SP and BSP. The Muslims constitute a sizeable 20 per cent of UP's population and are likely to make a difference if a large majority of them votes in favour of either the SP or BSP.

The BJP believes the Muslims of UP are still undecided but the infighting in SP could help the community make up their mind to support Mayawati's party in the forthcoming elections. This, on paper, would make BSP unbeatable with a 40 per cent support base, including 20 per cent Dalits in the state.

In the last two assembly polls, in 2007 and 2012, a party receiving 29-30 per cent votes in a multi-cornered contest has formed a majority government in the 403-member assembly. The BSP won 206 seats with a vote share of 30.43 per cent in 2007, while the SP was victorious with 224 seats with 29.15 per cent vote share in 2012.

To ensure that UP remains a multi-cornered fight, some in the BJP have even taken to suggest that the party should from now on, at least in its public pronouncements, count Rahul Gandhi-led Congress as a credible rival. The BJP leaders have done their bit in trying to sow seeds of doubt in the Muslim mind about BSP's chances in the polls. In their public meetings, the PM as well as Shah have been identifying the incumbent SP as their party's chief rival in the polls.

Behind the scenes, the BJP has tried to portray Mayawati's BSP as a weakened force by periodically poaching into some of that party's important backward caste leaders. The BJP hopes this might make Muslims in UP's western, eastern and central regions vote differently and mostly make their decisions based on local factors, instead of as part of a pan-UP strategy.

Apart from its message of development, the BJP caste arithmetic is to build on its committed 15 per cent vote base of upper castes by adding some of the caste groups that traditionally vote for BSP to reach the magic 30 per cent vote share.

In her public rallies, Mayawati has been imploring for Dalit-Muslim unity.