Will Third Front put brakes on Narendra Modi juggernaut?

Or are some of its potential allies also eyeing power-sharing arrangements with the BJP in case the Saffron party delivers convincing numbers?

In Delhi's power circles, political heavyweights term the Third Front as a grouping full of prime ministers. Probably, this makes it almost doomed from the word go. The Third Front's main objective is to present an alternative to alliances led by two national-level parties: the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA); the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) at the Centre.

 

The emergence of regional parties has weakened the two national parties. Even if the yet to-be-born Third Front does well at the 2014 polls to win over more supporters and form a government, it would almost certainly be fatally weakened by internal bickering, policy disagreement and leadership clashes. In the past ‘Third Front’ coalitions had formed governments on two occasions. Neither came close to completing its full term.

 

Last week, Business Standard reported that old friends are burning the proverbial midnight oil to get on board like-minded regional parties as the race to head the next government at the Centre hots up. Does the formation of a Third Front serve the interests of the nation at all? Or is it just a way to safeguard the vested interests of a few regional parties? Political pundits are of the view that the parties dreaming of a Third Front will ultimately be forced to give up and enter into a coalition with either the Congress or the BJP.

 

There is one school of thought that argues that the Left parties themselves may finally decide to support the Congress, as in the 2004-08 period, to keep the saffron party out of the corridors of power. The comrades spent the last five years in a political wilderness, especially after it lost power in two crucial states -- West Bengal and Kerala. The communists decline began in 2008 when they broke with the UPA on the Indo-US nuclear deal.

 

The Left was trying to bring AIADMK boss J Jayalalithaa and Biju Janata Dal (BJD) chief Naveen Patnaik on one stage against BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi at an anti-communalism convention as an effort to cobble up a Third Front opposed to both the Congress and the BJP.  For regional leaders like Samajwadi Party (SP) chieftain Mulayam Singh Yadav, Janata Dal (United) leader Nitish Kumar, Patnaik and Jayalalithaa the meeting could offer them an opportunity to project themselves as potential leaders of a Third Front amid predictions that the 2014 elections would produce a fractured mandate.

 

But the Left’s Third Front dream may not have factored in the possibility that the allies it is looking at may want to share power with the BJP in 2014. Jayalalithaa, the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister, is known to share a good rapport with Modi and there is speculation her party could be a prospective BJP ally after next year’s general elections.

Odisha Chief Minister Patnaik had been part of the NDA till 2009 and the possibility of him returning to the BJP-led combine after the polls cannot be ruled out. Jayalalithaa may skip the convention as she has to be present at a Bangalore court on October 30. In 2002, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supremeo Mayawati campaigned in favour of Narendra Modi in Gujarat elections.

 

Analysts say if neither the Congress-led alliance nor the BJP’s counterpart manages enough numbers, the absence of a formal pre-poll group might make it easier for some allies from either combine to join as a confederation of regional players.  The SP, which switched its allegiance from the Left to the Congress in 2008, is unlikely to venture into uncharted waters at a time when it has a better chance of being the kingmaker if a weakened Congress needs it at the Centre to keep the BJP at bay.  Also, Mulayam is unlikely to join any group if it has someone like Jayalalithaa, seen as soft on the BJP. His presence will be ruled out absolutely if BSP, which has no ideological qualms about joining any side, becomes part of the proposed front.

 

Currently, experts junk the idea of a Third Front saying it is unfeasible given the opportunistic tendency of regional parties to chase power. At this juncture the formation of Third Front is unattainable as differences will crop up among parties on ticket distribution and seat sharing. Parties like to contest polls on their own strength and then get together after the next general election.

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BS takes a look at four possible scenarios after the Lok Sabha results are
declared and try to figure out where Third Front would fit in  

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. SCENARIO I

 

The BJP bags 180-190 seats and reaches the magic figure with the NDA partners

 

Third Front role: Parties most likely to sit in the Opposition

. SCENARIO II

 

The BJP finishes between 160 and 170. Observers feel the BJP might have to change its plans to go ahead with Modi as PM and look for a consensus candidate to get some other allies to support the government

 

Third Front role: Left, SP, Trinamul unlikely to be a part of such an alliance

. SCENARIO III

 

The Grand Old Party manages to reach 150 and can cobble up a majority with the help of its partners in UPA II. 

 

Third Front role: If the Congress is in a comfortable position, Left will wait to see how the Congress goes about picking its allies

. SCENARIO IV

 

The BJP and the Congress taken together get less than 180 seats

 

Third Front role: Political pundits say such a scenario would be ideal for CPM leader Prakash Karat, Mulayam Singh, Nitish Kumar and Mamata to play the role of a kingmaker, taking the lead with other regional parties.

. A)  If the BJP approaches the alliance, the possibility of extending support appears bleak considering the group survives on strong minority support 

. B) If the Congress approaches the alliance, there is a strong possibility of an alliance or an outside support for the Congress.