D&B Business Optimism Index for Q2 2009 declines by only 2% (q-o-q) as against a 31% drop in Q1 2009 (q-o-q).
- Composite Business Optimism Index for Q2 2009 recorded a decrease of 2% (q-o-q), which is an improvement over the 31% (q-o-q) drop in the previous quarter
- On a y-o-y basis, the BOI for Q2 2009 recorded a decrease of 39% as against a decline of 43% in Q1 2009
- Resultant Optimism for Volume of Sales for Q2 2009 stands at 23% unchanged from the previous quarter
- Resultant Optimism for Net Profits for Q2 2009 stands at 18%, a decrease of 5 percentage points over the previous quarter
- Resultant Optimism for Selling Prices for Q2 2009 stands at -4%, the lowest value since Q1 2002
- Resultant Optimism for New Orders for Q2 2009 stands at 25%, a decrease of 1 percentage points over the previous quarter
The Dun & Bradstreet Composite Business Optimism Index for Q2 2009 fell to a new low of 93.8, after touching 95.7 in Q1 2009. As compared to the previous quarter, the Composite Optimism Index declined by around 2%. However, the pace of contraction is lower as compared to the previous quarter; in Q1 2009 the Composite Optimism Index fell by 31% (q-o-q). On a y-o-y basis, the BOI for Q2 2009 recorded a decrease of 39% as against a decline of 43% in Q1 2009. Based on the responses received, it was observed that five out of the six optimism indices – namely, volume of sales, net profits, selling prices, new orders, and employee levels have registered a decline as compared to the previous quarter. Only one out of the six optimism indices – inventory levels – increased by seven percentage point as compared to the previous quarter.
“While the BOI shows marginal improvement, sentiment continues to be dampened. Less than expected growth in GDP numbers is likely to have dented corporate confidence. Decline in industrial production for two consecutive months (Dec & Jan) and in exports for five months in a row (Oct-Jan) remains a cause for concern. However, 52% of BOI survey respondents expecting an increase in New Orders is a positive sign.”, said Kaushal Sampat, Chief Operating Officer, Dun & Bradstreet – India.“Going forward, the outcome of the forthcoming parliamentary elections and stability of the ensuing Government will play a key role in determining business expectations over the next quarter. The rapidly evolving dynamics of the global economy over the coming months will continue to have an impact on domestic business sentiment” he added.
Demand conditions are expected to remain subdued during Q2 2009. While about 50% of the respondents anticipate an increase in sales volume, as many as 27% of the respondents expect the sales volume to decline in Q2 2009. The resultant Optimism for Volume of Sales remained unchanged at 23% (this is the lowest value since Q1 2002) compared to the previous quarter. However, the resultant Optimism for Volume of Sales has declined by as much as 40 percentage points as compared to Q2 2008.
Profit expectations of the Indian corporate sector continued to taper further with as many as 28% of the respondents anticipating a fall in their net profits in the forthcoming quarter. Approximately 46% of the respondents expect an increase in profits during Q2 2009, while as many as 26% expect no change in profits. The resultant Optimism for Net Profits declined by around 5 percentage points compared to the previous quarter and stands at 18% (a 27 quarter low).
With moderating demand conditions, lowering input costs and the extension of excise duty cuts beyond 31-Mar-09, as many as 78% of the respondents expect the selling prices of their products to decline or remain unchanged in Q2 2009. While about 22% of the respondents expect selling prices of their products to increase, about 26% expect to witness a decline in their selling prices during Q2 2009. The resultant Optimism for Selling Prices stands at -4%, the lowest value registered since Q1 2002.
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Approximately 52% of the respondents expect their order book position to improve (an increase of 4 percentage points from the previous quarter), while around 27% anticipate a decrease in the number of new orders during Q2 2009. The resultant Optimism for New Orders stands at 25% (a 27 quarter low) marginally lower compared to 26% in the previous quarter.
While about 34% of the respondents expect their level of stock to increase, around 48% expect to witness no change in their inventory levels during the Apr-Jun 09 quarter. Approximately 18% expect their level of stock to decline during Q2 2009 as compared to 22% during the previous quarter. The resultant Optimism for Inventory Levels stands at 16% an increase of around 7 percentage points as compared to Q1 2009.
The majority of respondents anticipate no change in the size of the workforce employed during Q2 2009. Approximately 65% of the respondents intend to keep the number of employees unchanged. While 24% of the respondents expect an increase in the number of employees, 11% expect a decline. The resultant Optimism for Employees stands at 13% for the Apr-Jun 09 quarter, a decrease of around 8 percentage points as compared to the previous quarter.
About the D&B Business Optimism Index
The D&B Business Optimism Index is widely recognised as an indicator, which measures the pulse of the business community and serves as a reliable benchmark for investors. The index is arrived at on the basis of a quarterly survey of business expectations.
The survey is conducted on a sample of companies that are selected randomly from D&B’s commercial credit file. The sample selected is a microcosmic representation of the country’s business community and includes companies from several sectors including basic goods, capital goods, intermediate goods, consumer durables, consumer non-durables and service sectors. Respondents to the survey are asked six standard questions regarding whether specified parameters viz., net sales, net profits, selling prices, new orders, inventories and employee levels, will register an increase, decline or show no change in the ensuing quarter as compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The indices are then calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents expecting decreases from those expecting increases.
For calculating the Composite Business Optimism Index, each of the six parameters is assigned a weight. The positive responses for every parameter for the period under review are expressed as a proportion of positive responses in the base period (Q2 1999). The parameter weights are then applied to these ratios and the results aggregated to arrive at the Composite Business Optimism Index.
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