"This year," he said, after the recent Spanish Grand Prix, "I think Monte Carlo will be one of the few possibilities to challenge Mercedes -- especially for Red Bull. It is a chance, but not I think for us..."
The 32-year-old Spaniard has not won in the principality since the second of his two successive victories in 2007, in a race that ended amid controversy as he led his then-Mercedes team-mate Lewis Hamilton home.
A post-race inquiry vindicated the team's position in controlling their drivers as they claimed a crushing one-two victory.
This time around, Hamilton arrives in Monaco not as a new boy, but as the in-form championship leader following four straight wins for the 'silver arrows' -- and intent on adding another triumph to that he claimed with McLaren, following Alonso's abrupt departure, in 2008.
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And, after clocking the fastest times in qualifying for the last two years, Mercedes know they should be confident of securing another pole position, perhaps a front row lockout and turning the traditional 78-laps contest into a private in-house duel.
Team chief Toto Wolff explained that, perversely, it is the near-perfection of the team's car performance that may undermine their qualifying supremacy of recent years on the famous Mediterranean street circuit.