The constituency, which is going to polls on May 7, has an electorate of 11.51 lakh, including 5.45 lakh women. Of the 1,616 polling stations here, only 80 have been declared 'normal' while 1,091 have been declared 'hypersensitive' and 445 as 'sensitive' by Election Commission.
Apart from sitting MP Sharief ud-din Shariq of NC and PDP's Muzaffar Hussain Baig, a former deputy chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir, other candidates who may count in the May 7 polls here are -- the Peoples Conference's (PC) Salamuddin Bajad and Awami Ittehad Party (AIP)'s Abdul Rashid Sheikh.
PDP and NC candidates would, therefore, be keeping an wary eye on their smaller rivals, especially sitting MP Shariq who is reportedly facing some discontent among the ranks of alliance partner Congress, which may hamper his chances of winning again from here.
Shariq will be banking on a three-way split in the anti- incumbency votes to retain the seat.
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It is likely that Congress workers will repeat the south Kashmir pattern in this constituency.
Baig, the sitting MLA for the Baramulla Assembly seat, is said to enjoy considerable support here and would be banking on the anti-incumbency factor against Shariq.
The Baramulla constituency is spread over the three districts of Baramulla, Kupwara and Bandipora. It comprises 15 assembly seats of which seven went to NC in 2008. PDP has five legislators here while Congress has a lone MLA. Two Assembly seats were won by Independents.