It is going to be difficult to retain Moradabad Lok Sabha constituency for BJP, which is in a direct contest with Congress due to consolidation of Muslim votes ahead of the April 23 election, saffron party candidate Kunwar Sarvesh Kumar has said.
Kumar, a Thakur, is pitted against Congress's Imran Pratapgarhi, a poet who has often questioned the BJP government through his provocative compositions and fiery speeches.
As the campaigning heats up, SP-BSP-RLD coalition's S T Hasan, a doctor by profession, is also trying to win over the Muslim votes, about 47 per cent of the total 19.41 lakh voters in the constituency. Only the community members have not yet disclosed who they will back this time.
Political observers say Muslim voters often decide their support during last three days of campaigning.
Though Kumar, a political strongman, is well-known in the area, he is unsure about his re-election. "The election is going to be difficult," Kumar told PTI on the phone as he is busy campaigning in interior areas of the constituency.
"The fragmentation of Muslim votes has not happened. The election has become Congress versus BJP," he added.
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Kumar had been a Member of Legislative Assembly five times from Thakurdwara before he was elected MP from Moradabad in 2014. His son is now an MLA from Barhapur, one of the five assembly segments in the parliamentary constituency.
Other than Muslims, Jatavs, who have traditionally supported the BSP, constitute 9 per cent of the total voters.
"We follow wishes of Behan Mayawati ji. Now that an alliance is in place, BSP voters(Jatavs) will give full support to it as is wished by Behenji," Ranvijay, a BSP supporter, said.
The BJP is on the defensive as its voters from the Scheduled Caste community the Balmikis are also angry with their local MP, Kumar.
They say they will either support the BSP-SP-RLD alliance or not cast their vote.
"We have traditionally voted for the Congress and then we supported the BJP. Our support resulted in the victory of Kumar (in 2014). But in the last five years he has not visited us," said Harkesh, a resident of Daulat Bagh Balmiki colony.
He said whenever the community sought Kumar's presence, he sent his representatives. "We will not vote for him this time."