CIBC World Markets said its assessment is not comprehensive, but that with Ottawa and provincial governments facing revenue crunches in the wake of falling commodity prices, it was worthwhile exploring how much new revenue could be generated from legal marijuana.
The study ignored broader health, social policy and criminal justice issues.
In it, analyst Avery Shenfeld put forth various scenarios to try to pinpoint the size of the Canadian market for cannabis, using Statistics Canada surveys and a study in the International Journal of Drug Policy on the estimated number of pot smokers in this country, as well as Colorado's experience.
Extrapolating from the International Journal of Drug Policy research, total Canadian spending on marijuana would be Can dollars 3 billion, he said.
"If so, dividing that pie among governments and producers would not appear to leave a lot of room for a fiscal boost unless prices were raised substantially," Shenfeld said.
But he noted that in Colorado the size of the market had been underestimated, and if the same is true here, the market for cannabis in Canada could be worth as much as Can$10 billion.
If marijuana is taxed at the same rate as other economic activities, the governments' combined take would be about 30 percent, or up to Can dollars 3 billion. If it is taxed at the same higher rate as cigarettes and alcohol, however, the amount would rise to Can dollars 5 billion.
Trudeau has appointed former Toronto police chief Bill Blair to sort out new regulations for the distribution of marijuana post-legalization.
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