Chinese military spending might match that of the US by the 2030s, the International Institute for Strategic Studies said as it launched its annual study of global military capabilities and defence economics.
However, China's capabilities, expertise and ability to project power to the same level will take several more years to catch up, the institute's experts said at their London headquarters.
Asian defence spending in 2013 was 11.6 per cent higher than in 2010, in real terms, the IISS said. The largest absolute spending increases in the past year were in East Asia, with China, Japan and South Korea accounting for more than half.
"These outlays are fuelling heightened military procurement in a region replete with conflicting territorial claims as well as long-standing potential flashpoints," said IISS director-general John Chipman.
"Not least because of the Asia-Pacific's central place in the global economy, the rapid pace of capability development and the potential for accidental conflict and escalation will continue to be of concern.