Civilian deaths undermining US military missions: report

The United States underestimates the long-term impact of civilian deaths on the success of military missions and is failing to implement lessons learned from 15 years in Afghanistan, according to a report released today.
While the US military is committed to avoiding civilian casualties, the report said that mistaken air strikes, misidentified target, unexploded ordinance and rogue partners have frequently led to non-combatant deaths in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and elsewhere.
The study by Open Society Foundations, a charity founded by US magnate and philanthropist George Soros, found that in Afghanistan, such deaths seriously undermined the mission and fueled the growth of the Taliban.

"Civilian harm accelerated the insurgency and undermined the US and Afghan governments," said Army combat veteran Christopher Kolenda, a study co-author.
"It was like burning a candle at both ends with a blowtorch."
The report describes several causes of civilian casualties, and is particularly critical of unplanned air strikes to support troops on the ground as being a "primary driver" of civilian harm.

In Afghanistan in 2008, for instance, air strikes accounted for 64 percent of the 828 non-combatant deaths blamed on pro-government forces, and 26 percent of those killed overall.
"Signature strikes -- when an individual or group of military-aged males is tracked over time and targeted for engaging in behavior that is deemed to be suspicious -- are a particular concern," the report states.

Additionally, the report blasts "predatory partners" the United States worked with in Afghanistan who could "operate with near impunity due to their close and highly visible relationship to the US military."
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South Asia also will face continuing challenges from political turmoil-particularly Pakistan's struggle to maintain stability-as well as violent extremism, sectarian divisions, governance shortfalls, terrorism, identity politics, mounting environmental concerns, weak health systems, gender inequality, and demographic pressures, it said.
"Geopolitically, the region's greatest hope is India's ability to use its economic and human potential to drive regional trade and development. At the same time, Afghanistan's uncertain prospects, extremism and violence in Pakistan, and the ever-present risk of war between India and Pakistan probably represent the greatest challenge to unlocking the region's potential," it said.

NIC said despite persistent problems like violent extremism and tension between its two nuclear powers, India and Pakistan, the region's global relevance is changing, as Iran opens up economically after sanctions relief and China turns its focus westward.
"India is also an increasingly important factor in the region as geopolitical forces begin to reshape its importance to Asia, and the United States and India will grow closer than ever in their history," it said.
New Delhi will be a victim of its own success as India's growing prosperity complicates its environmental challenges.
For example, providing electricity to 300 million citizens who now lack it will substantially increase India's carbon footprint and boost pollution if done with coal-or gas-fired plants, it warned.

India is projected to surpass Indonesia as having the world's largest Muslim population in 2050, raising questions about stability in the face of sectarian mistrust, it noted.
"The perceived threat of terrorism and the idea that Hindus are losing their identity in their homeland have contributed to the growing support for Hindutva," the report said.
"India's largest political party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, increasingly is leading the government to incorporate Hindutva into policy, sparking increased tension in the current sizable Muslim minority as well as with Muslim-majority Pakistan and Bangladesh," the NIC alleged.
According to NIC, India probably has the greatest potential to boost global growth because of its size and the success of its technology sector, but it would have to improve its energy, transportation and manufacturing infrastructure to sustain high rates of growth.

Infrastructure has improved in some locales but not in wide swaths of the country.
"Unlike China, India will benefit from 10 million new working-age residents per year during the coming decades, yet harnessing such a massive labor pool increase in ways that increase productivity and boost output has proven difficult," it said.